数据中心资本开支解读_2025 年持续上行及 2026 年强劲势头支撑我们对人工智能加速芯片 GPU_XPU 超 50% 复合年增长率的判断

Summary of J.P. Morgan's Semiconductor Research Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the semiconductor industry, particularly in relation to datacenter capital expenditures (capex) and the growth of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. Key Points Datacenter Capex Trends - Long-term elevated spending in cloud and hyperscale datacenter infrastructure is expected, indicating significant upside to future capex expectations [1] - Growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been materially increased, supported by guidance from major U.S. cloud service providers [1][4] - Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta have all raised their capex guidance for 2025, signaling strong spending momentum into 2026 [1] Specific Company Guidance - Meta raised its 2025 capex guidance midpoint to $71 billion (up 81% year-over-year), from a previous estimate of $69 billion (up 76% year-over-year) [1][4] - Google increased its 2025 capex guidance to $92 billion (up 75% year-over-year), from $85 billion (up 60%+ year-over-year) [4] - Microsoft reported capex of approximately $35 billion for the first quarter of FY26, exceeding its prior estimate of $30 billion+ [4] AI Infrastructure Spending - The ongoing demand for AI is driving a multi-year growth runway for companies involved in AI infrastructure, particularly for NVIDIA (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO), Marvell (MRVL), AMD, and Micron (MU) [1][4] - Companies are investing heavily in AI-related technologies, with NVIDIA expected to benefit significantly from datacenter GPU demand [4] Market Dynamics - The cloud backlog for Google has grown to $155 billion, indicating strong momentum in cloud services [4] - The overall sentiment from the earnings reports of U.S. cloud service providers supports a medium-term positive outlook for capex growth in 2026 and 2027 [1] Investment Opportunities - Companies with leverage to AI infrastructure spending are expected to experience strong tailwinds, including: - NVIDIA (AI compute acceleration processors) - Broadcom (Google TPU ASIC XPU, Meta MTIA ASIC XPUs) - Marvell (Trainium ASIC XPUs) - AMD (second-largest merchant GPU supplier) - Micron (HBM memory, eSSD) - Western Digital (HDD) - Astera Labs (networking connectivity) [1][4] Additional Insights - The aggressive investment strategies of cloud providers are aimed at supporting the development of next-generation AI models and enhancing core business operations [1] - The anticipated capex growth in 2026 is expected to be notably larger than in 2025, reflecting a robust demand for AI capabilities [1][4]