投资者演示文稿 - 贸易休战与 “十四五” 规划优先事项-Investor Presentation-Trade Truce and FYP Priorities

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the US-China trade relationship and its implications for the Asia Pacific region. It highlights the ongoing trade tensions and the recent developments in tariffs and non-tariff measures between the two countries [4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Trade Truce: A slightly better truce has been established between the US and China, although the strategic competitive nature of their relationship suggests that this truce may remain fragile [4][5]. 2. Tariff Adjustments: - The US has suspended reciprocal tariffs on China, reducing them from 145% to 30%. - China has lowered its tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% [5]. 3. Non-Tariff Measures: - China has announced measures such as suspending retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural products and delaying expansive rare earth export controls for a year [4]. - The US has paused Section 301 investigations on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors for a year [4]. 4. Five-Year Plan (FYP): The 15th FYP outlines goals for technology and consumption, emphasizing a more balanced growth approach with a focus on higher consumption share and a detailed tech roadmap [7][8]. 5. GDP Growth Targets: China aims for an annual 4.17% real GDP growth over the next decade to double its GDP per capita by 2035, with projections indicating a GDP per capita of approximately US$21,165 by that year [8]. Additional Important Content 1. Economic Rebalancing: Progress on economic rebalancing in China is described as slow, with expectations that the GDP deflator may remain negative in 2026 before turning mildly positive in 2027 [10]. 2. Social Welfare Reform: Insufficient social welfare spending is linked to a lower consumption share in GDP, indicating a need for reform in this area to boost economic growth [19]. 3. Manufacturing PMI Trends: The decline in manufacturing PMI is attributed to payback from front-loaded production, with signs of fiscal pass-through observed [24]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the trade dynamics between the US and China, the implications for the Asia Pacific region, and the strategic goals outlined in China's Five-Year Plan.