固收：11月债市投资策略

Summary of the Conference Call on Bond Market Investment Strategy Industry Overview - The focus is on the bond market, specifically the investment strategies for November 2025, highlighting a strong but limited downward movement in bond prices with low risk [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments - Economic Expectations: Investors have high expectations for a strong economic start in the coming year, supported by positive developments in US-China trade negotiations and potential recovery in PMI data [1][3]. - Interest Rate Trends: The ten-year government bond yield needs more favorable conditions to effectively drop below 1.7%. Current conditions show a 7,000 fund level around 1.4, indicating a loose but not extremely low liquidity environment [2][3]. - Duration Strategy: It is recommended to maintain a neutral to slightly high duration strategy in November, focusing on opportunities to compress spreads, particularly in 30-year non-active bonds, 50-year government bonds, and 5-10 year active government bonds [5][11]. - Short-term vs Long-term Bonds: Short-term certificates of deposit are not cost-effective, while short-term government bonds are less likely to decline due to central bank purchases. If short-term rates continue to decline, a bullet strategy is preferred; if rates fluctuate, a balanced approach between bullet and barbell strategies is suggested [6][10]. - Central Bank Actions: The central bank restarted government bond trading to stabilize the balance sheet and as a long-term liquidity tool. This move is crucial given the declining balance of central government debt from January to September [7][8]. - Government Bond Supply: Although the net financing scale of government bonds in Q4 is lower than last year, it is still significant, necessitating central bank cooperation. The expected net financing scale for November to December is approximately 1.7 trillion, lower than last year's nearly 3 trillion [9][10]. - Future Monetary Policy: There is a high probability of interest rate cuts next year, although the likelihood of cuts within the year is low. The central bank may adopt a more flexible approach to reserve requirement ratio adjustments based on market conditions [10][12]. - Investment Recommendations: For 10-year government bonds, the new bond 220 is less attractive compared to the main bond 215 due to its small issuance scale. Recommendations include focusing on high-value long-term bonds such as the 30-year and 50-year government bonds [11][12]. - Floating Rate Bonds: Floating rate bonds benefit from declining short-term rates, but many are currently overpriced. Investors are advised to selectively focus on specific floating rate products [13]. - Bond Futures Strategies: The December contract IR2 is at a high level, suggesting effective hedging strategies using bond futures. Specific analysis is required for different contracts during the November rollover [14]. Other Important Insights - The overall bond market is expected to remain strong with limited downside risk, indicating a cautious but optimistic outlook for investors [4]. - The central bank's actions are crucial for maintaining liquidity and supporting the bond market amid fluctuating economic conditions [8][10].