美国股市-看似强势，实则疲软 --- US EQUITIES - looks strong, but feels weaker

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The current market is characterized as "weird," where forming a two-sided debate is easier than reaching a consensus view [2] - The S&P 500 has been above its 50-day moving average for 128 consecutive days, indicating a strong performance, yet underlying issues are emerging [3][4] Market Sentiment and Performance - Despite the NDX rising approximately 2% last week and achieving back-to-back monthly gains of around 5%, market sentiment is deteriorating [9][10] - Approximately 70% of S&P companies have reported earnings, with 64% exceeding estimates, which is above the long-term average of 49%. However, the market has not rewarded these earnings beats as expected [12] AI Capital Expenditure - AI capital expenditure expectations have increased by $50–60 billion for the next twelve months, with significant projections for major companies: META at ~$120 billion, GOOGL at ~$122 billion, MSFT at ~$140 billion, and AMZN at ~$161 billion for 2026, marking a 60% increase in expected hyperscaler spending this year [14][15] - AI-related issuance in credit markets has reached $220 billion gross this year, with a significant portion coming from TMT and Utilities sectors [17][18] Consumer Behavior - The consumer backdrop is softening, with signs of fatigue spreading to the 25–35-year-old and middle-income segments. Retailers and restaurants are reporting weaker traffic and sales [19][20] - Digital spending channels remain robust, with companies like Visa and Amazon indicating continued strength among higher-income and online consumers, suggesting a divide between physical and digital consumer behavior [19][20] Future Outlook - GS Research anticipates a growth impulse to increase, providing a tailwind into early next year, although sentiment across cyclical sectors remains subdued [23][24] - A new Low Quality basket (GSXULOWQ Index) has been introduced to identify vulnerable market segments characterized by high leverage and poor profitability, which may serve as a tactical hedge or short overlay [25] Leverage Concerns - The median net leverage for the GSXULOWQ stocks is near 2020 highs, despite current interest rate levels being significantly different from those in 2020 [27][29]