解读信号：科技股盈利、贸易动向与美联储表态-Navigating Through Signals Tech Earnings, Trade Moves, and Fed Messaging

Summary of Morgan Stanley Global Macro Forum Call Industry and Company Involvement - Industry: Technology and Trade Relations - Companies Mentioned: Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Meta Platforms Inc., Microsoft Core Insights and Arguments 1. 3Q Tech Earnings: Continued growth in AI-related capital expenditures and signals of GenAI adoption were observed. Data center spending from the six largest players is projected to reach $591 billion in 2026 and $700 billion in 2027. Price targets for GOOGL, MSFT, and AMZN have been raised, while the target for META has been lowered. All four stocks remain rated as Overweight [31][31][31] 2. Revenue Surprises: The S&P 500 index has seen a revenue surprise of 2.3%, more than double the historical average of 1.1%. This indicates firming top-line growth for the median stock, with an encouraging sales beat rate and the best EPS growth for the median stock in four years [31][31][31] 3. China-US Trade Truce: Recent developments indicate a marginally better truce between the US and China, although durable de-escalation remains uncertain. The strategic competitive nature of the relationship suggests that the truce could be fragile. The US has suspended certain tariffs, while China has made concessions regarding agricultural products and fentanyl [15][15][31] 4. Economic Rebalancing in China: The Five-Year Plan indicates a shift towards higher consumption and a more detailed tech roadmap. China aims for an annual GDP growth of 4.17% over the next decade to double its real GDP per capita by 2035. Public expenditure remains focused on capital expenditure [18][20][31] 5. FOMC Takeaways: Fed Chair Powell indicated that future rate cuts will be data-dependent, with concerns about a prolonged government shutdown potentially impacting the outlook for consecutive cuts [31][31][31] Other Important Insights 1. AI Leadership: AI-related stocks have resumed leadership after a period of consolidation, with revenue revisions being crucial for maintaining this outperformance [12][31][31] 2. Economic Outlook: Reflation is expected to continue at a slow pace through 2026-27, with progress on economic rebalancing remaining gradual [21][31][31] 3. Tariff Adjustments: The US has lowered tariffs on China from 145% to 30%, while China has reduced tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10%. This is seen as a net positive for the economic outlook [15][31][31] 4. Market Risks: Near-term risks include the Federal Reserve potentially moving too slowly and increasing stress in funding markets [31][31][31]