Inovance(SZ:300124)2025-11-04 01:56Summary of Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co. (300124.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co. - Industry: Industrial Automation Key Points Order Growth Trends - Inovance reported a year-over-year (yoy) growth in industrial automation (IA) segment orders of over 10% in October 2025, a decrease from over 30% in September 2025 [1][8] - Adjusted for the National Day Golden Week impact, month-over-month (mom) growth is expected to be between 25% to 30%, compared to 35% to 40% in October 2024 [1] - By end-markets, growth was observed in smartphones, polysilicon (solar), and cranes, while sectors such as metallurgy, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, machine tools, food & beverage, and woodworking experienced slowing yoy momentum [1] Management Guidance - Management indicated that the order trend aligns with their guidance for IA segment growth to slow sequentially in Q4 2025 and 2026 compared to Q3 2025, but maintain growth of approximately 20% yoy for the first three quarters of 2025 [1] Market Position and Rankings - Inovance maintained its 1 ranking in Servo with a 32% market share (down 3 percentage points quarter-over-quarter but up 3 percentage points yoy) and a 21% share in Low Voltage Inverter (down 4 percentage points qoq but up 1 percentage point yoy) [2] - In Mid-to-Large PLCs, Inovance held the 4 position with a 5% share (down 1 percentage point qoq) and 4 in Small PLC with a 6% share (down 1 percentage point qoq) [2] Comparative Analysis with Peers - Haitian International reported low double-digit % yoy growth in overall orders for October 2025, consistent with September 2025, and low-teens % mom growth [3] - HCFA experienced a significant 98% yoy growth in orders for October 2025, rebounding from a low base of -40% yoy in October 2024 [4] Investment Thesis - Inovance is viewed as a domestic leader in industrial automation with a positive growth outlook due to: 1. Opportunities in overseas markets despite strong domestic positions in inverter and servo products [18] 2. Expected market share gains in small/large PLCs, aiding in digitalization and IoT transformation [18] 3. Growth in EV components and digitalization business development [18] - Competitive advantages include industry-leading R&D effectiveness and a comprehensive product portfolio that enhances customer switching costs [18][20] Price Target and Risks - The 12-month price target is set at RMB 82.10, based on a 35x 2026E P/E ratio, with a current price of RMB 77.01, indicating a potential upside of 6.6% [22] - Risks include slower-than-expected market share gains, weaker margin trends, and a slowdown in manufacturing capex/automation demand [21] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the next few years are as follows: - 2025: RMB 45,493.4 million - 2026: RMB 52,707.1 million - 2027: RMB 57,461.2 million [22] Additional Insights - The domestic industrial automation market is projected to decline by 2% yoy in Q3 2025, with a flat growth forecast for 2025 [2] - Inovance's competitive positioning and growth strategies are expected to provide resilience through market cycles [18]