中国房地产 - 10 月房价下跌加速-China Property-Home Price Decline Accelerated in October

Summary of the Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the China Property market, specifically the secondary home market in major cities across the country [1][8]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Home Price Trends: - Secondary home prices in major cities fell by 0.9% month-on-month (m-m) in October, a decline from -0.7% in September and -0.8% in August. Year-on-year (y-y), the decline was -10.4% [2][5]. - 95% of the tracked cities experienced m-m decreases in home prices, up from 84% in September. Approximately 70% of cities saw faster declines compared to 50% in September [2][18]. 2. Market Sentiment: - High-tier cities experienced a deeper decline of -1.2% m-m, indicating a more bearish sentiment among residents regarding home prices compared to low-tier cities [2][5]. - The high volume of secondary listings is expected to continue affecting market sentiment negatively, leading to further declines in home sales and prices for the remainder of the year [1][5]. 3. Listing Trends: - Total listings remained stable, with a slight decrease of 0.1% m-m in October. However, 45% of the sample cities recorded m-m increases in listings, down from 71% in September [3][5]. - New secondary listings softened by -7% m-m and -7% y-y, with over 80% of cities reporting m-m decreases [3][17]. 4. Visitations: - Visits to agent shops increased by 3% m-m and 3% y-y on average in October, suggesting a potential shift towards secondary home sales due to fewer new primary home launches [4][5]. 5. Future Expectations: - The expectation is for further home price declines, with a forecast of a high-single-digit percentage decline in secondary home prices for 2025. This is attributed to high inventory levels and cautious homeowner sentiment [5][6]. 6. Investment Strategy: - The company maintains a defensive and selective approach, suggesting that the recent industry pullback may present good entry points for quality state-owned enterprises (SOEs) with alpha opportunities. In contrast, private-owned enterprises (POEs) may face challenges due to older landbanks [6][8]. - Recommended stocks include CR Land (1109.HK) and C&D (1908.HK) as long-term market consolidators, while COLI (0688.HK), Jinmao (0817.HK), and Yuexiu (0123.HK) are expected to outperform peers in the fourth quarter [6][67]. Additional Important Information - The report indicates that the overall industry view remains in-line, reflecting cautious optimism amidst challenging market conditions [8][40]. - The analysts involved in the report are Stephen Cheung and Cara Zhu, both of whom are certified and have not received compensation for specific recommendations in this report [23][28]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the China Property market, particularly focusing on secondary home prices and market dynamics.