印度股票策略手册 - 调整是否结束-India Equity Strategy Playbook-Is the Correction Over

Summary of the Conference Call on India's Equity Strategy Industry Overview - The focus is on the Indian equity market, particularly in the context of macroeconomic conditions and policy changes affecting growth and valuations. Key Points and Arguments 1. Market Correction and Recovery - Indian equities have experienced a significant correction since September 2024, but signs indicate a potential recovery as the growth cycle turns [1][2][3]. 2. Factors Influencing Underperformance - Key factors for India's underperformance include a growth slowdown in the second half of 2024, high relative valuations, lack of explicit AI-related trades, and delays in the US trade deal [2]. 3. Positive Growth Outlook - A positive growth surprise is anticipated due to: - Reflation efforts by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and government through rate cuts and liquidity infusion. - Expected GST rate cuts amounting to nearly ₹1.5 trillion, favoring mass consumption. - Improved relations with China and a potential India-US trade deal [3]. 4. Case for Re-rating - Structural changes such as a declining intensity of oil in GDP and an increasing share of exports, particularly in services, suggest lower real rates and reduced inflation volatility, which could lead to higher P/E ratios [4]. 5. Key Catalysts and Risks - Catalysts include: - Anticipated positive earnings revisions. - Expected RBI rate cuts. - Ongoing policy reforms, including GST cuts and privatization efforts. - Potential India-US trade deal. - Risks involve slowing global growth and geopolitical tensions [5]. 6. Portfolio Strategy - Recommended strategy includes: - Overweighting sectors like Financials, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials. - Underweighting sectors such as Energy, Materials, Utilities, and Healthcare. - Emphasis on domestic cyclicals over defensives and external-facing sectors [6]. 7. Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators suggest a positive outlook for growth, with nominal GDP growth expected to outpace policy rates, which historically correlates with strong stock performance [36][41]. 8. Valuation Insights - Current P/B ratios suggest modest long-term returns, with the market cap to M2 ratio indicating lower returns in the near term [80][84]. 9. Sentiment and Flows - Institutional flows are currently off highs, indicating a potential contra indicator for market performance. The proprietary sentiment indicator suggests a buy zone, indicating favorable conditions for risk-taking [93][94]. 10. Macro Forecasts - GDP growth is projected at 6.5% for FY2025, with a gradual decline in the repo rate to 5.00% by FY2026. EPS growth for the Sensex is expected to compound at 16.8% annually through FY2028 [97][99]. 11. Index Target - The BSE Sensex target is set at 89,000 by June 2026, implying a 6% upside potential, supported by macro stability and positive growth expectations [98]. Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic stability and policy predictability in driving equity performance, with a focus on domestic consumption and investment as key growth drivers [40][99]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the Indian equity market's outlook, key drivers, and strategic recommendations for investors.