跨资产投资手册-2025 年 11 月_主动把握牛市机遇

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Macro Environment: The Federal Reserve is navigating a challenging macroeconomic landscape with a weakening labor market and solid economic activity. In Europe, improved data has reduced downside growth risks. China's modest stimulus is expected to help achieve a 5% growth target, but long-term growth requires rebalancing [1][27]. Core Insights - Market Valuations: Current market valuations are near all-time highs, indicating strong bullish sentiment towards risk assets. Despite tepid macroeconomic conditions, fundamentals and capital flows remain resilient, prompting close monitoring of cross-asset correlations for potential shifts in market behavior [2][10]. - AI Investment: AI spending is projected to contribute significantly to US GDP growth, with an estimated $3 trillion in capital expenditures through 2028. This investment is expected to yield positive returns starting this year, creating opportunities in credit markets, including private and corporate financing [3][10]. - Asset Allocation Recommendations: - Equities: Overall allocation remains neutral, with a slight overweight in US equities due to strong earnings growth and a weaker USD. European and Japanese equities face headwinds from currency strength, while emerging markets are underweight due to tariff shocks [4][17]. - Fixed Income: A 7% overweight in core fixed income is recommended, particularly in USTs and agency MBS, as lower yields and no recession are expected to keep spreads contained [18][19]. - Commodities: A cautious stance on commodities is advised, with a 3% underweight, particularly on Brent crude, while maintaining a preference for gold and copper [19][20]. Important Data Points - Equity Forecasts: - S&P 500 projected at 6,500, MSCI Europe at 2,250, and MSCI EM at 1,200 for Q2 2026 [15]. - Inflation and Growth Projections: - Headline and core PCE inflation expected to be around 3.0% and 3.2% in 2025, with a gradual decline in subsequent years [33][34]. - US Dollar Outlook: The USD is expected to face downward pressure due to diminishing growth and yield differentials compared to other G10 economies, alongside increased FX-hedging by foreign investors [13][21]. Additional Insights - Public Policy Impact: Current public policies are likely to create volatility in markets, but the focus should be on selling USD rather than US assets. The economy and stock market are diverging, with policies affecting companies differently without significant implications for GDP [10][14]. - Global Economic Dynamics: The outlook for Europe indicates persistent inflation undershooting, with expectations for the ECB to resume cutting rates in March 2026. In Japan, a potential rate hike is anticipated in December 2025 [23][24][56]. - China's Economic Strategy: China's fiscal stimulus is expected to stabilize GDP growth, but a shift towards greater consumption is necessary for sustainable long-term growth [61][62]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the macroeconomic environment, market sentiments, investment strategies, and projections for various asset classes.