存储半导体月度报告_2025 年 11 月版_DDR 价格上涨加速-Memory Semis Monthly _November '25 Edition_ DDR ride up accelerates_ Gaudois_ November ‘25 Edition_ DDR ride up accelerates

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the Memory Semiconductors industry, focusing on DDR (Double Data Rate) pricing trends and inventory levels for major players like Samsung and SK Hynix [2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. DDR Pricing Trends: - DDR contract pricing is expected to increase by at least 21% QoQ in 4Q25, with ongoing negotiations showing positive momentum [2]. - Specific increases noted: - PC DDR4/DDR5 pricing is projected to rise by 25%/26% QoQ for October [2]. - Server DDR5 pricing negotiations are trending towards an increase of 20% QoQ or higher [2]. - Mobile DRAM pricing is anticipated to approach 40% QoQ, with a final outcome expected closer to 25% [2]. 2. Inventory Levels: - Finished product inventories are low, with Samsung's DRAM inventory at 4-5 weeks and SK Hynix's DRAM inventory below 4 weeks [3]. - PC/smartphone OEM inventories for DRAM are below 8 weeks, and server DRAM inventories are below 9 weeks for hyperscalers [3]. 3. Production Growth Forecasts: - Revised forecasts for bit shipment growth for Samsung and SK Hynix in 2026 are +15% and +14% YoY for DRAM, respectively, indicating that supply will lag behind demand [3]. 4. Capital Expenditure (Capex) Outlook: - Capex forecasts for Samsung and SK Hynix suggest further upside, with expectations of +35% for DRAM wafer fab equipment in 2026 and +30% for NAND [4]. - SK Hynix is expected to complete equipment installation at M15X by the end of 2026 [4]. 5. Rating Adjustments: - Price target (PT) increases for several companies: - SK Hynix PT raised to Won710k from Won640k [5]. - Samsung PT raised to Won128k from Won118k [5]. - Nanya Tech PT raised to NT$140 from NT$110, but rating downgraded to Neutral from Buy due to valuation concerns [5]. Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment in the memory semiconductor market is optimistic, with suppliers having the upper hand in negotiations due to low inventory levels and strong demand forecasts [2][3]. - The anticipated increases in pricing and production capacity suggest a robust recovery trajectory for the memory semiconductor sector, particularly in the context of AI and server applications [2][4].