中国互联网数据中心板块_2025 年第三季度前瞻_警惕人工智能滞涨股补涨-Chinese Internet Data Centre Sector_ Q325 preview_ be ready for the AI laggard catch-up

Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - The focus is on the Chinese Internet Data Centre (IDC) Sector which is currently seen as an AI laggard globally, presenting an attractive investment opportunity as demand for AI infrastructure strengthens [2][19][39]. Key Insights and Arguments 1. Growth Phase: The Chinese IDC industry is entering a renewed growth phase, driven by increasing demand for AI infrastructure. New orders are expected to recover significantly in the next 3-6 months, particularly for large-scale AIDC projects [2][10]. 2. Revenue Growth Forecast: For Q325, revenue growth is projected at 11.4% for GDS and 18.7% for VNET year-over-year, indicating steady utilization ramp-up despite previous chip supply constraints [3][6]. 3. Positive Earnings Reports: A-share IDC companies reported strong earnings in Q325, with revenue growth rates of 30% for Aofei, 15% for Range, 9% for Sinnet, and 6% for Athub, all surpassing Q225 growth [3][10]. 4. Hyperscaler Capital Expenditure: Upcoming earnings reports from hyperscalers are anticipated to provide insights into their AI capital expenditure, which is expected to be closely monitored by investors [4]. 5. Valuation Discounts: Chinese IDCs are currently trading at an average 25% valuation discount compared to global peers, with ADRs trading at a 40% discount. This gap is expected to narrow as the sector is projected to grow at a higher EBITDA CAGR of 17% from 2025 to 2027, compared to 11% for global peers [5][19]. 6. REIT Launches: The anticipated launch of IDC public REITs in 2025 is expected to support valuation re-rating and enhance balance sheet flexibility for companies like GDS and VNET [5][27]. Additional Important Points - Utilization Growth: The IDC industry is expected to see IT power utilization grow by 19% in 2025, 24% in 2026, and 26% in 2027, translating to a net addition of 2-4GW per year [9]. - Market Recovery: The sector has shown signs of recovery since Q325, with new IDC orders resuming after a temporary pause due to supply constraints [10]. - Risks and Opportunities: Downside risks include weaker-than-expected AI demand and regulatory challenges, while upside risks involve stronger-than-expected growth in AI and cloud services [39][40]. Conclusion The Chinese IDC sector is poised for significant growth driven by AI demand, with favorable revenue forecasts and potential for valuation re-rating through REIT launches. Investors should monitor upcoming earnings reports from hyperscalers and the overall market recovery trajectory.