Summary of GDS Holdings Ltd Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - Company: GDS Holdings Ltd (GDS.O) - Industry: Greater China Telecoms Key Points and Arguments 1. Revenue Estimates Adjustment: Revenue estimates for GDS Holdings have been reduced by 3.1-3.3% for 2026-27E due to lower-than-expected new orders in 2025E and decreased contract pricing from renewals [1][2] 2. EBITDA and EPS Revisions: Adjusted EBITDA is lowered by 2.6% for 2026E and 2.4% for 2027E. Normalized EPS revisions are -0.3% for 2026E, -6.8% for 2027E, and -10.1% for 2028E, partially offset by a disposal gain [1] 3. Price Target: The price target remains unchanged at US$54 per share, with bull and bear case values also unchanged at US$73 and US$19 per share, respectively [2] 4. Market Conditions: The lower EBITDA in China is counterbalanced by a new forex assumption of 7.05 Rmb/US$ (previously 7.15) and lower net debt [2] 5. Investment Thesis: The demand in China is expected to recover mildly, driven by hyperscalers' cloud and AI capital expenditures. GDS's public REITs have received approvals, with an anticipated valuation of ~15x EV/EBITDA [11] 6. International Expansion: GDS's DayOne initiative is seeing successful overseas progress with strong order momentum [11] 7. Utilization Rates: Projected utilization rates are expected to increase from 73.8% in 2024 to 81.0% by 2027 [16] 8. New Booking Projections: New bookings are projected at 80,000 sqm for 2025-2027 [16] 9. Market Share Recovery: The market share recovery (MSR) growth is projected to be -2.0% in 2025, improving to 1% by 2027 [11] Additional Important Information 1. Ownership Positioning: Institutional ownership stands at 86.8%, with a long/short ratio of 2x and net exposure of 26.3% in the hedge fund sector [19] 2. Risks to Price Target: Upside risks include accelerated sales in overseas markets and further interest rate cuts, while downside risks involve increased competition and potential reductions in hyperscaler capex [20] 3. Stock Performance Metrics: The stock closed at US$35.70 on October 31, 2025, with a 52-week range of US$52.50-16.93 [4] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding GDS Holdings Ltd, highlighting the adjustments in financial estimates, market conditions, and strategic initiatives.
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