Camden(US:CPT)2025-11-07 17:00Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Camden reported same-store revenue growth of 0.8% for Q3 2025, up 0.9% year-to-date, and up 0.1% sequentially [9] - Core funds from operations (FFO) for Q3 2025 were $186.8 million, or $1.70 per share, exceeding prior guidance by one cent [13] - The company increased its full-year core FFO guidance by $0.04 per share from $6.81 to $6.85, marking the third consecutive increase for 2025 [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Effective new lease rates decreased by 2.5%, while renewal rates increased by 3.5% in Q3 2025 [9] - The blended rate growth was 0.6%, a decline of 10 basis points from the previous quarter and 40 basis points compared to Q3 2024 [9] - Turnover rates remained 20-30 basis points below last year's levels, with move-outs attributed to home purchases at a record low of 9.1% [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Strong apartment demand continued, making 2025 one of the best years for apartment absorption in the last 25 years [5] - The company noted that apartment affordability improved, with 33 months of wage growth exceeding rent growth [5] - Private market sales of apartments showed robust activity, with cap rates for high-quality properties landing in the 4.75%-5% range [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Camden is focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet with no major dilutive refinances over the next couple of years [6] - The company plans to continue share buybacks, having repurchased $50 million of shares at a significant discount to net asset value [7] - Camden anticipates a stronger growth profile post-2025 as the excess supply from the post-COVID environment diminishes [6] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism for 2026, citing reduced uncertainty compared to 2025 and a significant amount of multifamily supply absorbed in 2025 [19][20] - The company highlighted that demographic and migration trends support new demand going forward [6] - Management noted that the current disconnect between private and public market values for apartments is significant, with a 30% discount to consensus NAV [7][39] Other Important Information - Camden disposed of three older communities for a total of $114 million, using proceeds to repurchase shares [12] - The company expects occupancy for Q4 2025 to be in the range of 95.2%-95.4% [15] - Property expenses are expected to decline slightly, leading to a decrease in the full-year same-store expense midpoint from 2.5% to 1.75% [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Early thoughts on 2026 earnings - Management indicated that earnings for 2026 are expected to be flat compared to 2025, with a more favorable environment anticipated [19] Question: Current appetite for investment in apartments - There remains robust demand for multifamily assets, with significant capital available, although transaction volumes are below pre-COVID levels [24][25] Question: Fourth quarter expectations relative to normal seasonality - The fourth quarter is expected to reflect typical seasonality, with blended lease tradeouts anticipated to be down approximately 1% [30] Question: Impact of concessions on market rents - In higher supply markets, concessions are averaging around five weeks, approximately 10%, which will need to roll off in 2026 [73][74] Question: Supply impact on 2026 - The company expects a significant decline in new deliveries, which should positively impact demand and absorption rates in 2026 [56][57]