Banombia S.A.(US:CIB)2025-11-07 15:02Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net income grew nearly 20% quarter-over-quarter and 43% year-over-year, driven by resilient margins and a sharp decline in provision charges [4][28] - ROE expanded by 288 basis points during the period, reaching 20.4% [5][28] - Grupo Cibest's standalone double leverage ratio was 106%, indicating strong creditworthiness and room for further leverage [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Nominal loan growth was flat during the quarter, but adjusted for effects, loan growth would have reached 1.2% quarter-over-quarter [4][14] - Consumer loans were the main driver of growth, with a notable increase in credit card usage and strong performance from Nequi [14][22] - Mortgages registered an annual growth of 11% [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Colombian economy sustained its recovery through the third quarter, with economic activity likely expanding at an annual rate of 2.4% [10] - Central American operations showed notable resilience, with El Salvador expected to grow 2.2% and Guatemala projected to expand 3.6% [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is well-positioned to deliver sustained value creation for shareholders through a new corporate structure under the holding company [6] - The share buyback program launched in mid-July is enhancing ROE performance and boosting key valuation metrics [7][8] - The launch of Breve was completed smoothly, with Bancolombia and Nequi accounting for 52% of all digital keys registered [9] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management anticipates continued improvements in asset quality and a cost of risk in the range of 1.5%-1.7% for 2025 [31] - The company expects loan growth of approximately 3.5% for 2025, with a net interest margin estimated at 6.5% [30][31] - The management is confident that Nequi will reach profitability by 2026, following its separation from Bancolombia [81] Other Important Information - Net provisions amounted to COP 800 billion, a 24% quarterly drop and close to 48% annual contraction [24][25] - Operating expenses decreased by 2.4% during the quarter, driven by efficiency strategies [27] Q&A Session Summary Question: Sustainability of funding costs and potential upward revisions to ROE - Management emphasized a structural advantage in managing funding costs through a robust digital offer and physical presence [36] - ROE guidance for 2025 is around 17%, with potential for improvement [37] Question: Update on presidential elections and efficiency guidance - Management noted that clarity on candidates will emerge closer to the elections, with January and March being key months for assessment [44] - Efficiency guidance for 2026 is around 50%, with ongoing efforts to optimize expenses [46][48] Question: Loan growth breakdown and sustainable levels for new PDL - Loan growth for 2026 is guided at 7%, with consumer loans expected to grow around 10% [54] - Management indicated a cost of risk range of 1.6%-1.8% for 2026, reflecting improved credit risk behavior [55] Question: Model recalibration and tax rates - The model recalibration applies to all banks within Grupo Cibest, reflecting improved credit risk across countries [64] - The effective tax rate for Grupo Cibest is around 28%, varying by country [66] Question: Buyback program and Nequi's profitability roadmap - Management is satisfied with the buyback program's progress and remains flexible regarding future capital allocation [80] - Nequi is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with profitability anticipated in 2026 [81]