再再再call锑：信心重塑，拐点确认

Summary of the Conference Call on Antimony Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the antimony industry, particularly the impact of export control policies in China and their implications for market dynamics and pricing [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - Export Control Policies: China's antimony export control policies have fluctuated, with a significant drop in export volumes following the implementation of controls in September 2024. Exports fell from over 3,000 tons per month to nearly zero, but have since shown signs of recovery [3][4]. - Market Confidence: The recent easing of export restrictions by the Ministry of Commerce is expected to enhance market confidence significantly. This adjustment allows for a more normalized review and approval process for exports, particularly to the U.S. [2][6]. - Import Trends: As of September 2025, antimony imports have decreased by 40% year-on-year. Despite domestic prices being over 150% lower than international prices, imports have not ceased, indicating limited overseas inventory pressure [5][6]. - Production and Demand: Prior to the export controls, China's annual production of antimony was approximately 80,000 to 90,000 tons, with 40% allocated for export, primarily in the form of antimony oxide for the flame retardant sector, especially in photovoltaic glass production [7][8]. - Photovoltaic Glass Demand: In 2023, the global photovoltaic glass sector consumed about 30,000 tons of antimony, with China being the largest consumer. Although demand decreased post-control, production has stabilized, suggesting that a recovery in demand could lead to a 20% increase if conditions improve [8][9]. - Price Projections: Current domestic antimony prices are around 150,000 RMB per ton, while international prices range from 4,500 to 4,600 USD per ton. If export levels return to 80%-90% of previous figures, a demand increase of 30%-40% is anticipated, which would significantly boost prices [9][10]. - Future Market Expectations: The expectation is that as export restrictions ease, there will be a substantial increase in demand, leading to a corresponding rise in both domestic and international prices. The potential for price recovery is strong, with projections suggesting domestic prices could reach 250,000 RMB or even exceed 300,000 RMB under optimistic scenarios [10][11]. - Valuation and Growth Potential: The T sector is viewed as having significant growth potential, with estimates suggesting that companies like Huaxi Nonferrous and Hunan Huayu Mining could see substantial increases in their valuations, with growth rates potentially exceeding 50% to 100% [12][13]. Additional Important Insights - Market Resilience: The antimony market is expected to experience only positive developments moving forward, with no anticipated negative news. This outlook is supported by the expected improvements in fundamentals, earnings per share (EPS), and overall valuations in the T sector [13]. - Investment Recommendations: There is a strong recommendation to focus on the T sector, given the anticipated improvements in market conditions and the potential for significant price increases and valuation enhancements [13].