HANSOH PHARMA(HK:03692)2025-11-10 03:34Summary of Hansoh Pharma (3692.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Hansoh Pharma - Ticker: 3692.HK - Market Cap: HK$217.9 billion / $28.0 billion Key Industry Insights - Sales Growth for Ameile: - On-track sales progress for Ameile with a peak sales guidance of Rmb8 billion as a monotherapy, expected to be driven by adjuvant settings over the next two years [1][2] - Incremental sales contribution from adjuvant settings estimated at Rmb2-3 billion, with gradual sales ramp-up anticipated due to the need for expanded academic marketing and digestion of NRDL price cuts in 2026 [2] - Overseas Development Progress: - Smooth progress in overseas development for several assets: - GSK has started patient enrollment for global phase 3 clinical trials for HS-20093 (B7H3 ADC) targeting small cell lung cancer (SCLC) [3] - Merck plans to advance HS-10535 (oral GLP-1) to clinical stage by the end of 2025 [3] - Roche is exploring HS-20110 (CDH17 ADC) for colorectal cancer (CRC) [3] - The company aims to secure at least one out-licensing deal annually to generate sustainable collaboration income from upfront and milestone payments [3] - Innovative Pipeline Deliveries: - Targeting 8-10 new INDs (Investigational New Drug applications) each year to enhance the pipeline [4] - Focus on early-stage assets including: - HS-20122 (EGFR/cMet ADC) with patient dosing in 1H25 and phase 1 data readout expected in 2026 [4] - First siRNA program aimed at cardiovascular diseases, with IND filing by the end of 2025 [4] - Oral IL-23 currently in phase 1 [4] Financial Metrics and Valuation - Price Target: - Buy rating with a 12-month price target of HK$39.93, representing an upside of 8.4% from the current price of HK$36.82 [8][10] - Revenue Forecasts: - Projected revenues for the next few years: - 12/24: Rmb12,260.8 million - 12/25E: Rmb14,746.3 million - 12/26E: Rmb15,839.3 million - 12/27E: Rmb17,202.4 million [10] - EBITDA Estimates: - Expected EBITDA figures: - 12/24: Rmb4,315.8 million - 12/25E: Rmb5,027.2 million - 12/26E: Rmb4,959.9 million - 12/27E: Rmb5,197.5 million [10] Risks Identified - Sales Risks: - Potential for generics sales post VBP (Volume-Based Procurement) to fall below expectations [9] - Ramp-Up Risks: - Slower-than-expected ramp-up of novel drugs [9] - R&D Risks: - Risks associated with the innovative drug pipeline [9] - Collaboration Income Risks: - Below-expected collaboration income from global expansion of the pipeline [9] Conclusion Hansoh Pharma is positioned for growth with a strong pipeline and overseas development initiatives. However, potential risks related to sales performance, drug ramp-up, and R&D must be monitored closely. The company maintains a positive outlook with a solid financial forecast and strategic plans for innovation and market expansion.