中国宏观首席投资官考察要点-China_ Macro CIO Tour Takeaways

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Chinese Economy and Macro Environment - Event: China Macro CIO Tour held on November 6, 2025, in Beijing Core Insights and Arguments 1. US-China Relations: - Importance of US-China relations emphasized in the context of foreign relations and domestic economic planning. The 15th Five-Year Plan proposal reflects this with extensive discussions on the external environment. The management of the 2025 US-China trade war is viewed as an improvement over the 2018-19 trade war, with a fragile truce recognized as beneficial for both economies [3][3][3] 2. 15th Five-Year Plan: - Discussion on the required average growth rate of 4.0-4.2% over the next decade to achieve the goal of "per capita GDP reaching levels of moderately developed countries." The service sector is expected to be a key focus for economic management due to its labor-intensive nature and job creation potential [4][4][4] 3. Going Global: - Chinese leadership is no longer concerned about "manufacturing hollowing-out" due to overseas expansion. Instead, it is seen as essential for maintaining manufacturing strength and global market share. However, operational challenges such as a lack of experienced workers and profitability issues were highlighted [5][5][5] 4. Property Market: - The property market is continuing to weaken, with no significant easing measures expected. Household assets have shrunk by over RMB100 trillion (approximately 100% of current annual GDP) due to property price declines, negatively impacting household consumption. A large-scale government-led property destocking program is deemed unlikely due to high costs and implementation difficulties [6][9][9] 5. Fiscal Challenges: - Local governments face ongoing financing pressures despite a RMB10 trillion debt swap plan. The total implicit debt is much larger than the swap amount, leading to potential cash flow problems. Recommendations include raising the official deficit from 4.0% of GDP, although it is expected that policymakers will keep it unchanged [10][10][10] 6. Outlook for 2026: - Economic growth is expected to remain challenging due to the declining property market and tight local government finances. Policymakers may consider setting a lower growth target and increasing policy easing measures, including mortgage interest rate reductions and relaxation of purchase restrictions. A shift in government subsidies from goods to services consumption is anticipated [11][11][11] Other Important Insights - Service Sector Focus: The emphasis on boosting service activity through the removal of restrictions in consumer services and improving business services to enhance competitiveness among Chinese manufacturers [4][4][4] - Fragility of Truce: The truce in US-China relations is viewed as fragile, with unresolved issues and a lack of trust that could lead to future tensions [3][3][3] - Property Renovation: The 15th Five-Year Plan includes calls for property renovation, suggesting that property investment may stabilize before prices do [9][9][9]