中国股票策略 - A 股情绪因风险偏好减弱而回落-China Equity Strategy-A-Share Sentiment Fell Amid Weaker Risk Appetite

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: A-Shares in China - Market Sentiment: Sentiment weakened toward year-end amid lower risk appetite and ongoing third-quarter earnings releases, with a constructive medium-term outlook for China [1][13] Core Insights and Arguments - Sentiment Metrics: The weighted MSASI (Market Sentiment Indicator) decreased by 7 percentage points to 59% compared to the previous cycle, indicating a decline in market sentiment [2] - Turnover Trends: Daily turnover for ChiNext, A-shares, and Margin Transactions decreased by 23% (to RMB 478 billion), 17% (to RMB 1,874 billion), and 1% (to RMB 2,466 billion), respectively [2] - Foreign Inflows: Southbound net inflows reached US$6.2 billion during October 30-November 5, with year-to-date and month-to-date inflows at US$6.2 billion and US$3.3 billion, respectively [3] - Property Market: Home prices in approximately 50 sample cities fell by 0.9% month-on-month and 10.4% year-on-year in October, with expectations of weak home sales for the remainder of the year [4] - Earnings Guidance: Monitoring e-commerce companies' guidance is crucial as it may indicate 2026 earnings growth, with expectations for a meaningful acceleration in earnings growth by the sector [13] Additional Important Insights - Market Dynamics: The consensus earnings estimate revision breadth remained negative, indicating a cautious outlook among analysts [2] - Government Bond Yields: Long-term government bond yields are a key factor to watch, as they may influence investor sentiment and allocation towards equities [13] - Investor Sentiment Normalization: The MSASI is based on 12 individual indicators capturing different dimensions of investor sentiment, normalized to reduce noise from high-frequency movements [14][22] - Weighting of Indicators: Each of the 12 metrics in the MSASI is assigned a weight based on its historical explanatory power relative to the CSI 300 Index, ensuring that the overall index reflects the most relevant sentiment components [23][24] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the A-share market dynamics, sentiment indicators, and the implications for future earnings and investment strategies.