大中华区材料 - 稀土当前动态-Greater China Materials-are Earths What’s Happening Now

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Rare Earths Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Rare Earths industry, particularly in Greater China and the Asia Pacific region [1][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - Temporary Relaxation of Export Controls: On October 30, 2025, China's Ministry of Commerce announced a suspension of extensive export controls on rare earths for one year, with general export licenses likely to be issued for compliant producers [2][3]. - Supply-Demand Outlook: The supply-demand situation for major rare earth elements is expected to tighten further into 2026, indicating potential price increases and supply constraints [1][5]. - Trade Data Trends: China's rare earth and magnet trade data for the first nine months of 2025 show mixed trends, with significant year-over-year declines in medium-to-heavy rare earth exports (over 40%) and growth in light rare earth exports (over 30%) [10]. - Production and Quotas: China's production of NdFeB (Neodymium Iron Boron) blanks is projected to grow approximately 8% YoY to 390-400kt in 2025, with further growth of 10-15% YoY to 420-430kt in 2026. Export demand may account for 15-18% of this production [10]. Additional Important Information - Import Trends: Rare earth imports into China have slowed by 36.5% YoY, primarily due to reduced imports from Myanmar and the US, although imports from Laos and monazite from Nigeria and Madagascar have increased [10]. - Export Performance: Exports of rare earth magnets from China fell by 5% YoY, with a 25% YoY decline in exports to the US, reflecting a decrease in high-end product exports due to the controls [10]. - Recycling Contribution: Supply from recycling, which constitutes about one-third of total supply, is not included in the mining quota and is expected to continue rising [10]. Conclusion - The rare earths industry is experiencing significant changes due to China's policy adjustments and market dynamics. The temporary relaxation of export controls may provide short-term relief, but the long-term outlook suggests tightening supply and increasing demand, particularly as production quotas and recycling efforts evolve.