金属周刊_亚洲黄金市场要点-Metals Weekly_ Gold takeaways from Asia

Summary of Key Points from the Metals Weekly Report Industry Overview - The report focuses on the gold and precious metals market, highlighting insights from the LBMA/LPPM Global Precious Metals Conference held in Kyoto, Japan, in late October 2025 [1][3]. Core Insights - Long-term Bullish Sentiment: Despite a recent correction in gold prices to approximately $4,000/oz, there remains a strong bullish sentiment among market participants for gold and precious metals in the medium term. Conference attendees forecast an average gold price of $4,980/oz by the next LBMA conference in October 2026, reflecting a 24% increase from current levels [4][5]. - ETF Activity: Recent outflows from global gold ETFs totaled around 35 tonnes, which is only about half of the previous week's inflow of 62 tonnes. This indicates that ETF holdings are relatively sticky, although there is a risk of further outflows if gold prices drop below $3,900/oz [15][19]. - Central Bank Purchases: Central banks reported net purchases of 220 tonnes in Q3 2025, a 30% increase quarter-over-quarter, marking a strong buying trend that is expected to continue. Brazil and the Bank of Korea are highlighted as significant buyers [20][19]. - Jewelry Demand: Jewelry demand is currently weak, down 19% in tonnage year-over-year, but this decline aligns with expectations given the price rally. A shift towards bars and coins, particularly in China, is helping to offset some of this weakness [35][41]. - Recycling Supply: The growth in recycled gold supply remains modest, with a 1% decrease quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025. A significant drop in gold prices could trigger more selling from holders [42][50]. Additional Important Insights - Portfolio Allocation: Gold's share in total assets under management (AUM) has risen to 2.8%, with potential for this to increase to 4-5% in the coming years as investor interest grows [29][28]. - Emerging Markets: China's pilot program allowing insurance firms to invest in gold could translate to approximately 210 tonnes of gold, indicating a potential increase in demand from this sector [34]. - Market Dynamics: The report notes a consumer shift from jewelry to investment bars and coins, particularly in Asia, driven by changes in tax structures that favor investment gold over jewelry [41][34]. Conclusion - The overall outlook for gold and precious metals remains positive, driven by strong central bank demand, sticky ETF holdings, and a potential increase in portfolio allocations. However, risks such as price corrections and weak jewelry demand are factors to monitor closely [19][35][42].