2025-11-10 03:34Summary of China Regional Banks 3Q25 Review Industry Overview - The report focuses on the performance of China Regional Banks (CRBs) in the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25) - Overall profits for CRBs grew by 6% year-over-year (y/y), a decrease from 9% y/y in 2Q25, primarily due to a decline in non-fee income [1][3] Core Earnings and Profitability - CRBs demonstrated a core earnings recovery of 12% y/y, outperforming large banks which only saw a 1% y/y increase in core earnings [1][3] - Net Interest Income (NII) for CRBs grew by an average of 7% y/y, improving from 5% y/y in 2Q25, while large banks averaged only 0.4% growth [3][7] - Fee income increased by 16% y/y, reversing a contraction trend, supported by agency fee growth as market sentiment improved [3][7] - Non-fee income saw a significant decline of 32% y/y, primarily due to fair value losses in bond investments [3][7] Asset Quality - Asset quality remained stable, with the average Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratio declining by 1 basis point (bps) q/q to 0.96% in 3Q25 [1][21] - The Special Mention Loan (SML) ratio increased by 3 bps q/q, indicating some pressure on asset quality compared to large banks [21] - The NPL coverage ratio decreased slightly by 1 bps q/q, suggesting a cautious approach to provision releases [21] Capital and Growth Constraints - The Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio for CRBs decreased by 11 bps q/q, raising concerns about growth constraints due to lower capital levels [3][21] - CRBs reported a 2% q/q loan growth, consistent with industry trends, but with significant variations among banks [20] - Deposit growth was flat on average, with BoNB experiencing the highest contraction at -1.4% q/q [20] Investment Recommendations - Top picks among regional banks include BoNB and BoNJ, both showing double-digit growth in core earnings and stable asset quality [1][3] - BoBJ's performance was the weakest, with a profit contraction of 2% y/y and a low CET1 ratio, although its high dividend yield of 5.8% provides some downside protection [1][3] - Caution is advised regarding CSRCB until clearer signs of improvement in SME asset quality are observed [1][3] Valuation Insights - The report includes a valuation comparison of various regional banks, highlighting differences in price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, price-to-book (P/B) ratios, and return on equity (ROE) [5] - The average P/E for CRBs is projected at 6.1 for FY25E and 5.7 for FY26E, with an average dividend yield of 5.0% for FY25E [5] Conclusion - The overall performance of China Regional Banks in 3Q25 indicates a steady recovery in core earnings, although challenges remain in non-fee income and capital levels. The investment outlook is cautiously optimistic for select banks, particularly BoNB and BoNJ, while caution is warranted for others like CSRCB and BoBJ.