中国每周启动观察_MXCN 持平，A 股上涨 1%；MSCI 公布指数审议结果；10 月贸易增长放缓，非官方 PMI 回落-China Weekly Kickstart_ MXCN flat and A-shares gained 1%; MSCI announced index review results; Slower trade growth and ower unofficial PMIs in October

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the performance of the Chinese equity market, specifically focusing on MXCN and A-shares, which gained 0.4% and 0.8% respectively, with notable outperformance in the Energy and Capital Goods sectors, which increased by 5.0% and 4.9% this week [1][1][1] - The MSCI announced index review results, which are expected to bring approximately US$750 million in passive inflows to China effective November 24, 2025 [1][1][1] Economic Indicators - Trade growth in China has slowed significantly, with exports and imports showing a year-over-year decline of 1.1% and a modest increase of 1.0% respectively in October [1][1][1] - Unofficial manufacturing and services PMIs have both decreased, indicating a potential slowdown in economic activity [1][1][1] Market Performance - The MXCN/CSI300 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are reported at 13.0x and 14.7x respectively [8][8][8] - Earnings growth estimates for 2025 and 2026 are projected at 2% and 16% for MXCN, and 14% for CSI300 [8][8][8] Sector Performance - Energy and Value sectors outperformed, while Real Estate and Growth sectors lagged behind [7][7][7] - The report highlights that 78% of all Chinese listed companies have reported earnings so far, with 9M/3Q25 earnings rising by 6% and 11% year-over-year [16][16][16] Investment Flows - Southbound Connect saw inflows of US$5.0 billion this week, contributing to a year-to-date total of US$167 billion [3][3][3] - The report indicates that long buys in Asian equities exceeded short sales by a ratio of 3.3 to 1, with Korea experiencing the largest net buying flows [29][29][29] Policy and Regulatory Environment - The Chinese government has established a new department to manage central and local government debt, indicating a proactive approach to fiscal management [1][1][1] - Recent meetings between Chinese officials and US agricultural trade delegations suggest ongoing diplomatic efforts to stabilize trade relations [1][1][1] Future Outlook - The MSCI China index is projected to see changes in sector weights and potential passive flows, with significant inflows expected in sectors such as Metals & Mining and Health Care [14][14][14] - The report suggests that A-shares are likely to modestly outperform H-shares in the next three months based on proprietary models [37][37][37] Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the Chinese equity market remains cautious, with mixed signals from economic indicators and sector performances. However, the anticipated passive inflows from the MSCI rebalancing and ongoing government initiatives may provide support for future market stability and growth [1][1][1][8][8][8]