行业回顾_投资者应如何布局 2026 年上半年-Sector Review_ How should investors position into 1H26_

Summary of J.P. Morgan Sector Review Industry Overview - The report discusses the current state of the investment landscape, particularly focusing on the potential for a recession and its impact on various sectors. It highlights the fatigue investors are experiencing due to multiple economic scares over the past few years, including the energy crisis, regional banking crisis, and trade wars [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Economic Sentiment - Investors are exhibiting "recession exhaustion" after several economic scares that did not lead to downturns, leading to a reluctance to trade based on economic risks [1]. - The report suggests that spreads will likely remain tight and low until a confirmed recession is evident [1]. Sector Recommendations - Non-Cyclicals vs. Cyclicals: The preference for Non-Cyclicals over Cyclicals has been removed, with downgrades for IG Healthcare and IG Utilities to Neutral from Overweight. Conversely, IG Retail has been upgraded to Neutral due to signs of demand recovery in luxury goods [2]. - Cyclicals: Caution remains in certain cyclical sectors, particularly European manufacturing, which faces high energy costs and competition from low-cost Chinese producers. Underweight positions are maintained in IG/HY Chemicals and HY Autos due to oversupply and refinancing risks, respectively [3]. Financials vs. Non-Financials - A preference for Financials over Non-Financials is maintained, with Overweights in IG Bank Preferred, IG Bank T2, and IG Insurance Senior/Subordinated. The stability of net interest income and solid asset quality are highlighted as positive factors [4][9]. Performance Metrics - The report includes performance metrics for various sectors, indicating that Overweights in Corporate Hybrids and Insurance Subordinated have performed well, while underweights in Chemicals and Consumer Products have lagged [20][21][22]. Specific Sector Insights - Building Materials: Strong performance driven by pricing power and potential catalysts from German infrastructure spending [10]. - Telecoms: Anticipation of consolidation in the European Telecoms market, with a positive outlook due to regulatory shifts and increased capital expenditure [12]. - Paper & Packaging: Demand remains strong, particularly for metal packaging, driven by sustainability trends [13]. - Autos: Structural headwinds from Chinese competition and refinancing risks are significant concerns [14]. - Consumer Products: A shift towards private-label alternatives is noted, impacting branded goods negatively [15]. - Chemicals: Demand remains cyclically depressed, with overcapacity and high energy costs affecting competitiveness [16]. - Technology: Increased capital allocation in data centers is expected, with significant planned capex from major tech firms [17]. Conclusion - The report emphasizes a cautious yet strategic approach to sector allocation, with a focus on financial stability and emerging opportunities in specific sectors while remaining wary of cyclical risks and structural challenges in others [1][4][20].