中国休闲板块-中国游客回归；境内外谁将受益-China Leisure Sector _A APAC Focus_ the return of Chinese tourists; who benefits at home and abroad_

Summary of the Conference Call on the China Leisure Sector Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China Leisure Sector, particularly the travel industry, which accounts for 10% of Chinese consumption and is the strongest growth category in a subdued consumer spending environment [3][12]. Key Insights and Forecasts - Domestic Travel Growth: - Forecasted to grow at 4.8% CAGR from 2025 to 2040, reaching US$1,822 billion by 2040, which is 2.3 times the 2019 level [4][52]. - Expected to record a 7% CAGR in domestic travel volume from 2025 to 2027 [4][45]. - Anticipated increase in domestic travel frequency to 7.9 times per year by 2040, compared to 4.3 times in 2019 [52][54]. - Outbound Travel Growth: - Projected to reach US$628 billion by 2040, with a 9% CAGR from 2025 to 2040 [5][46]. - Chinese outbound travelers expected to increase to 368 million by 2040, with a penetration rate rising from 11% in 2019 to 26% [79][80]. - The EU and US are expected to account for over 40% of China's outbound travel spend by 2040, up from 20% currently [3][13]. - Consumer Behavior Shifts: - Travel spending is expected to shift towards experiences rather than physical goods, with a decline in shopping expenditure by approximately 15 percentage points by 2040 [5][76]. - The average per-capita spending for outbound trips is projected to reach US$1,709, which is 104% of the 2019 level [83]. Beneficiaries of Growth - Major beneficiaries identified include: - Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) - Limited Service Hotels - Macau Gaming - Chinese Airlines - Japanese Retail [6][14]. Market Dynamics and Challenges - The travel sector is correlated with the macroeconomy, suggesting potential headwinds from consumer downtrading and pricing pressures in the near term [4][51]. - Despite these challenges, lower travel costs are expected to drive domestic travel volume growth [51]. Long-term Implications - As Chinese tourists become the largest global travel cohort, their impact on global travel and consumer sectors, particularly luxury goods, hotels, airlines, and shopping malls, is expected to increase significantly [6][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of demographic shifts, supply expansion, and increased leisure time as key drivers for the anticipated growth in both domestic and outbound travel [61][62]. Conclusion - The China Leisure Sector is poised for significant growth, driven by increasing domestic travel frequency and a robust outbound travel market. The evolving consumer preferences towards experiences and the anticipated demographic shifts will reshape the travel landscape, presenting both opportunities and challenges for stakeholders in the industry [3][5][14].