解读中国出口管制策略及市场影响-nvestor Presentation-Navigating China's Export Control Playbook and Market Impact

Summary of Key Points from the Investor Presentation on China's Export Control Playbook and Market Impact Industry Overview - The presentation focuses on the China and US trade dynamics, particularly in the context of export controls and tariffs affecting the technology and critical materials sectors, including rare earths and lithium batteries [17][21][24]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. US-China Tariff Adjustments: - The US has reduced tariffs on China from 145% to 30%, while China has lowered tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% as part of a temporary truce [19][28]. - The truce is fragile, with potential for future escalations in tariffs and non-tariff barriers [18][28]. 2. China's Dominance in Critical Materials: - China holds a significant global market share in rare earths and lithium batteries, with 90% of refined production and 86% of EV battery production [22]. - The country’s dominance is supported by a complete value chain and cost advantages in lithium-ion battery production [23]. 3. Export Control Framework: - China has been gradually implementing an export control framework since 2020, with significant regulations introduced in 2024-2025 covering critical metals and technologies [24][26]. - The framework aims to consolidate regulations and enforce selective export controls on various materials, including rare earths and EV battery technologies [25][26]. 4. Impact of Trade Tensions: - Rising trade tensions and technology restrictions have prompted China to assertively control exports of critical materials, which could impact global supply chains [24][28]. - The US has also expanded tech controls, which may expose vulnerabilities in China's tech supply chain [29][30]. 5. Economic Scenarios Post-Truce: - Three potential scenarios for the evolution of the US-China truce are outlined: - Bear Case: Truce collapses, leading to sharp export slowdowns and supply chain disruptions. - Base Case: A one-year truce with intermittent frictions, resulting in marginal economic balancing. - Bull Case: Progress towards a framework deal, with improved economic conditions and reduced uncertainty [28]. Additional Important Insights - Self-Sufficiency in Semiconductors: - China's self-sufficiency in semiconductors remains low, with projections indicating only a 39% self-sufficiency ratio by 2027 [31]. - The GPU self-sufficiency ratio is expected to reach 50% by 2027, indicating some progress in localization efforts [31]. - Export Growth Trends: - Recent data indicates a softening in export growth, attributed to high base effects and front-loaded production [33]. - The year-on-year export growth is expected to be negative, but this is likely a one-off occurrence rather than a long-term trend [33]. - Inflation and Economic Indicators: - Inflation is projected to level off towards the end of the year, with CPI rebounding due to seasonal effects [38][40]. - The economic outlook remains cautious, with potential impacts from ongoing trade tensions and export controls [28][40]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and implications of the current trade dynamics between the US and China, particularly focusing on export controls and their impact on the technology and critical materials sectors.