跨越拐点的顺周期航空，新变化新看点

Summary of Airline Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The airline industry is experiencing a recovery in fundamentals, outperforming other cyclical consumer sectors, with continuous profit improvement in the first three quarters of the year, and an expectation of profitability for the entire year due to declining oil prices and increased passenger load factors [1][3][5]. Key Factors Influencing Profitability - Key factors affecting airline profitability include ticket prices, passenger load factors, and oil prices. A 1% increase in passenger load factor has a more significant impact on overall industry profitability than a 1% increase in ticket prices [1][5]. - The decline in Brent crude oil prices has contributed to lower fuel costs, aiding profitability [1][5]. Future Expectations - Despite a challenging macro environment, the airline industry has achieved profitability, indicating substantial future growth potential. Ticket prices are expected to rise in 2026, further driving profit growth [1][6]. - The current macro environment shows that travelers are price-sensitive, leading to cautious pricing strategies. The turning point in supply and demand is expected to manifest more in passenger load factors rather than ticket price increases in 2025, with a higher likelihood of price increases in 2026 [1][7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Since 2019, the fleet size of airlines has expanded by over 20%. Currently, demand growth exceeds supply growth, which may eventually reflect in ticket prices [1][8]. - The recovery of international flights to 85% capacity has become a significant growth factor, with airlines reallocating more capacity to international markets, resulting in tighter domestic supply [3][9]. Ticket Price Trends - In 2025, ticket prices showed strong performance during the off-peak season, while peak season prices were weaker compared to previous years. This trend indicates a gradual recovery in business travel demand [11]. - The correlation between domestic ticket prices and commercial real estate metrics in major cities suggests that business travel activity significantly influences ticket pricing [11]. Historical Performance and Future Outlook - Historically, airline stocks have performed well in the fourth quarter, with 14 out of the last 20 years showing increases, often driven by macroeconomic expectations or specific policy changes [12]. - The fundamentals of airline stocks are gradually becoming clearer, with a significant increase in operational scale, indicating a more optimistic profitability outlook for the next two to three years [13][16]. Investment Strategy - For investment, airlines with relatively low valuations and lagging performance, such as China Southern Airlines and Spring Airlines, are recommended. For those seeking cyclical elasticity, Air China and China Eastern Airlines are preferred due to their significant marginal improvements and greater profit elasticity [18]. Conclusion - The airline industry is positioned for growth, with improving fundamentals, a favorable supply-demand dynamic, and potential for increased ticket prices in the near future. Investors are encouraged to consider cyclical stocks within this sector as they may offer substantial returns in the upcoming quarters [1][6][17].