化工年度策略：“反内卷”为盾，需求为矛，化工有望迎来新一轮景气周期

Summary of Chemical Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The chemical industry is expected to enter a new cycle of prosperity by 2026, driven by supply-side reforms and policies to expand domestic demand [1][2][3] - The industry has been facing severe overcapacity, necessitating administrative measures for clearance [2][4] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to expand domestic demand, which is anticipated to significantly increase market demand for the chemical sector [1][2] Key Points and Arguments - Supply-Side Reforms: The need for administrative measures to clear overcapacity is critical, as traditional methods of balancing supply and demand are no longer effective [2][4] - Demand Growth: The implementation of policies to expand domestic demand is expected to provide new growth points for the industry, similar to the refrigerant sector [1][2] - Profitability and Valuation: The chemical sector is currently experiencing significant cyclical fluctuations, with valuations at historical lows. However, successful implementation of anti-involution policies could enhance both performance and valuation [3][5] - Government Policies: Recent changes in energy consumption and carbon emission controls by the government are expected to impact the industry positively, preventing involutionary competition and aiding in the recovery of profitability [7][8] Investment Recommendations - Leading Companies: It is recommended to prioritize investments in large, diversified leading companies such as Hengli, Rongsheng, and Wanhua in the petrochemical sector, as well as Hualu, Luxi, and Baofeng in the coal chemical sector [8][9] - Sub-Sectors to Watch: Focus on sub-sectors leading in anti-involution, such as polyester filament and PTA, as well as industries like spandex and refrigerants that are entering a natural clearing phase [8][9] Specific Market Insights - PTA Market: Currently in a state of extreme downturn, with significant losses reported. Government intervention is expected to stabilize effective capacity around 90 million tons by 2026, with leading companies holding a dominant market share [10] - Spandex Industry: After significant expansion, many companies are facing losses. The industry is expected to see a reduction in production, leading to potential profitability in the future [11] - Refrigerant Sector: The sector is viewed positively due to government policy changes and its status as a benchmark for anti-involution, with expectations for strong future performance [12] Other Notable Insights - Cyclical Nature: The chemical industry is experiencing notable cyclical volatility, with many products at historical low profitability levels. Recovery will require significant price increases [5] - Future Valuation Expectations: Valuations for the chemical industry are expected to improve, with projections for 2026 indicating a potential drop to around 10 times earnings [6] - Emerging Sectors: New materials related to AI, semiconductor materials, and solid-state battery technologies are also highlighted as areas of potential growth [15] Conclusion - The chemical industry is poised for recovery and growth, driven by government policies and market dynamics. Strategic investments in leading companies and promising sub-sectors are recommended to capitalize on the anticipated upturn in the market [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16]