如何看待进出口数据和楼市表现？

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance of China's export and import data for October 2025, as well as the challenges faced by the real estate market in China. Export Data - In October 2025, China's export growth rate declined to -6.4%, influenced by fewer working days due to the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, a high base effect from the previous year (12.6%), and a divergence in foreign trade demand [1][2] - Cumulative export growth from January to October 2025 was 5.3%, with optimistic projections suggesting a maximum annual growth rate of 5.7% and a neutral expectation of around 5.2% [1][5] - Exports to various regions showed a decline: ASEAN from 15.6% to 11%, Africa from 56.4% to 10.6%, and Latin America from 15.2% to 2.1% [1][3] Import Data - In October 2025, the import growth rate significantly dropped to 1%, down from 7.4% in September, primarily due to insufficient domestic demand [6] - Key imports included integrated circuits and automobiles, with integrated circuit imports decreasing from 32.7% to 26.9% and automobile imports increasing from 10.9% to 34% [7][8] Real Estate Market Challenges - The real estate market is facing challenges with declining sales area, average prices, and investment amounts, leading to increased financial pressure on real estate companies [10][11] - Sales data showed a downward trend across all regions, with significant declines in domestic loans, deposits, and personal mortgage loans [11][14] - The market remains cautious, requiring effective policy support to alleviate financial pressures on real estate firms [14] Future Outlook - For 2026, despite risks such as inventory buildup and trade policy uncertainties, China's export growth is expected to remain resilient at approximately 4.4% [9] - The focus of the 15th Five-Year Plan for real estate development emphasizes high-quality growth, improving housing supply, and enhancing regulatory frameworks for pre-sale systems [12]