化工：油气化工2026年展望：曙光已现，景气回暖（要点版）

Summary of the Oil and Chemical Industry Outlook for 2026 Industry Overview - The chemical industry has been in a downturn for over three years, with both the chemical price index and industry profit margins at low levels. The chemical product price index in China has decreased by 10.3% from early 2025 to the present, currently at the 10.6% percentile since 2012 [2][7] - The profit margin for chemical raw materials and products from January to August 2025 is at 4.14%, the lowest since 2017. The gross margin and net margin for petrochemical listed companies in Q2 2025 are 16.05% and 4.63%, respectively, also among the lowest in recent years [2][7] Capital Expenditure and Capacity Changes - Capital expenditures in the petrochemical sector have been declining, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.3% in 2024 and 15.1% in the first half of 2025. The industry has seen a continuous decline in capital expenditure for seven consecutive quarters since Q4 2023 [3][8] - Significant capacity exits are expected in Europe, with a total of 11 million tons of chemical capacity expected to be withdrawn from 2023 to October 2024. Companies like Westlake Chemical and Total have announced closures of their production facilities in Europe and Japan [3][8] Potential for Recovery - The industry is anticipated to reach a turning point in the capacity cycle due to favorable supply-side factors accumulating. The petrochemical industry is implementing measures to control major project constructions and prevent overcapacity risks in coal-based methanol production [3][8] - The outlook for the chemical sector is optimistic, with expectations of a reversal in the industry cycle. The basic chemical sector's price-to-book ratio is currently at 2.07x, within the 32.6% percentile since 2012, indicating potential for recovery [4][20] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights several investment opportunities in the chemical sector, particularly in leading companies with low valuations and significant profit growth expected in 2026. Key areas of interest include: 1. The fiber industry chain, such as PTA and polyester filament, and agricultural chains like pesticides and potassium fertilizers [4][20] 2. Emerging materials related to AI and robotics [4][20] Risks - Potential risks include a significant drop in oil prices, lower-than-expected economic growth, and rapid increases in industry investment growth [5] Conclusion - The oil and chemical industry is poised for a potential recovery after a prolonged downturn, with various factors indicating a turning point in the capacity cycle. Investors are encouraged to consider opportunities in undervalued companies and sectors expected to benefit from the upcoming changes in the market dynamics [4][20]