大摩闭门会：东稳西荡再现_纪要

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the current state of the U.S. and Chinese markets, highlighting the volatility in the U.S. due to government shutdowns, tariff legality concerns, and AI investment bubble worries, while the Chinese market remains relatively stable [1][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - U.S. Market Volatility: The U.S. market is experiencing increased volatility due to several factors, including government shutdowns and concerns over the legality of tariffs, which are expected to have limited actual impact [1][4][5]. - AI Investment: AI investments are currently in a pilot application phase, with full adoption expected by 2026. The potential for AI to increase profits for S&P 500 companies by 20% is noted, but hardware depreciation poses a risk [1][7][10]. - Employment Impact of AI: AI is projected to affect approximately 90% of jobs, particularly those with high automation and low creativity. Countries need to enhance social security systems to mitigate the impact on displaced workers [1][8]. - U.S.-China Relations: A recent agreement between the U.S. and China has delayed the implementation of certain key measures, indicating mutual dependence in technology resources and suggesting that disputes may become a new norm [1][13]. - China's Rare Earth Strategy: China controls over 85% of global rare earth mining and 90% of refining capacity, using this as a long-term strategy to counteract Western technological restrictions [1][14]. - Chinese Real Estate Market: The Chinese real estate market is under pressure, with top developers experiencing over a 40% decline in sales year-on-year. The market is expected to shift towards rental housing operations over the next decade, with significant potential for the REITs market [1][19][21]. Additional Important Insights - Public REITs Development: As of September 2025, there are 75 public REITs in China with a total market value of approximately 220 billion RMB, indicating significant growth potential compared to developed markets [1][22]. - Challenges for Institutional Investors: Institutional investors face challenges in participating in public REITs due to low trading volumes. It is suggested that they engage with listed developers to capitalize on this expanding theme [1][23]. - Macroeconomic Outlook: The GDP target for the upcoming year is likely set at around 5%, with a focus on maintaining confidence despite potential fiscal challenges. The allocation of resources is expected to favor technology sectors over consumer spending [1][24]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current market dynamics, investment opportunities, and potential risks.