大宗商品2026年展望：秩序新章的三重奏

Summary of Commodity Market Outlook and Key Insights Industry Overview - The report discusses the global commodity market outlook for 2026, highlighting a transition from surplus to balance, but not entering a super cycle [2][10] - Key commodities analyzed include oil, copper, aluminum, steel, agricultural products, and precious metals like gold [1][10][19] Core Insights and Arguments Commodity Market Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, global tariffs accelerated the restructuring of order, suppressing economic growth and leading to a sluggish commodity market [1][3] - The second half of 2025 saw improvements due to supply-side reforms and geopolitical risks driving price increases, resulting in supply-driven price premiums [1][3] Geopolitical and Economic Influences - Geopolitical tensions and resource protectionism are altering the supply curve of commodities, influenced by factors such as Middle Eastern production decisions, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and U.S.-China trade tensions [2][4] - New industries and emerging economies are driving demand, particularly through investments in AI, electrification, and renewable energy [2][4] Supply Challenges - Insufficient upstream investment is exacerbating supply tightness, particularly in oil and copper markets, with oil supply expected to tighten and Brent crude's breakeven price projected to be higher than current levels [5][10] - Copper supply is also under pressure due to rising disruption rates and declining ore grades, leading to upward price incentives [5][12] Agricultural Market Risks - Global weather patterns, particularly the potential for La Niña, could negatively impact agricultural yields, especially for soybeans, increasing the risk of production cuts [6][17] Infrastructure and Electrification - The development of new industries is significantly enhancing electrification levels, necessitating increased investment in grid infrastructure to avoid supply gaps [7][8] Green Transition and Pricing - The green transition and energy transformation are creating a "green premium," benefiting non-ferrous metals and certain agricultural products [8][9] Strategic Reserves and Inventory Management - The construction of global strategic reserves is likely to alter investment and inventory structures, with a trend towards regionalized inventory management emerging [9][10] Additional Important Insights - The outlook for the oil market in 2026 suggests a balance between supply and demand, with geopolitical risks remaining a concern [11][20] - The copper market is expected to see a 2.7% increase in demand in 2026, driven by electrification and energy transition [12] - The aluminum market faces production risks due to overseas power constraints, while the steel industry may experience oversupply despite improved exports [13][15] - The agricultural market is stabilizing after a two-year downturn, with expectations of reduced supply and improved export conditions for soybeans [17][18] - The precious metals market, particularly gold, remains attractive due to macroeconomic uncertainties and potential inflationary pressures [19][21] This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed overview of the current and future state of the commodity market, highlighting key trends, challenges, and opportunities for investors.