中国 AlphaWise 消费者脉搏调查（2025 年 10 月）-China Consumer Pulse -AlphaWise Consumer Pulse Survey Oct-25

Summary of China Consumer Pulse Survey (October 2025) Industry Overview - The survey focuses on the consumer sentiment and spending outlook in China, particularly across different income groups and city tiers. Key Points Economic Outlook - 43% of surveyed households expect China's economy to remain stable over the next six months, an increase of 4 percentage points quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) [19][15] - The proportion of households concerned about job losses decreased by 8 percentage points QoQ to 36% [3][15] - Projected income growth for the next 12 months softened to 5.3%, down from 5.8%, primarily affecting lower-middle-income groups and residents of lower-tier cities [40][15] Consumer Spending Expectations - Consumer spending outlook remained stable, with 67% of consumers expecting flat spending, 22% anticipating an increase, and 11% predicting a decrease, resulting in a net score of 11%, unchanged from the previous quarter [61][15] - Net spending outlook improved in Tier 1 and 2 cities (net increase of 5% and 4% QoQ to 11% and 17%, respectively), while lower-tier cities saw a decline (net increase down 5% QoQ to 8%) [4][15] Spending by Category - Spending budgets for most categories remained stable, with increases in sports fashion, consumer electronics, and groceries, while freshly brewed drinks and collectibles saw slight declines [5][15] - Participation in trade-in programs dropped to 37% from 44% in the previous survey, with lower-income and younger consumers showing less interest [57][15] Investment Trends - Only 5% of surveyed households indicated increased stock holdings, significantly lower than 28% for wealth management products and 31% for gold. However, the ratio was higher among higher-income groups (19% for those earning ≥Rmb30,000/month) [6][15] - Stocks ranked as the fourth most popular investment, with 31% of consumers increasing their stock holdings this year compared to 26% who reduced them, yielding a net score of 5% [44][15] Housing Market Concerns - Only 15% of surveyed households have strong home purchase plans, with a net 42% of prospective buyers expecting prices to fall next year, up from 33% in the previous survey [7][15] - The willingness of home sellers to accept losses increased to 52%, down from 56% in July [7][15] Major Concerns for Consumers - Concerns about job loss and inflation eased, with both remaining top concerns for 36% of consumers [52][15] - The share of consumers unconcerned about any issues rose to 25%, up 10 percentage points [52][15] Travel and Lifestyle Changes - Travel intentions declined QoQ, except for same-day domestic trips, which remained flat. However, the shopping budget per traveler increased for two consecutive quarters [5][15] - Lifestyle upgrade intentions held steady at 18%, with more consumers expecting unchanged spending [74][15] Additional Insights - The survey was conducted from October 24-28, 2025, with 2,040 consumers across Tier 1 to Tier 4 cities, providing a comprehensive view of consumer sentiment in China [7][15]