美国消费者脉搏调查：消费者显现疲软迹象-Thematic Alpha-US Consumer Pulse Survey Consumer Showing Signs of Weakening

Summary of US Consumer Pulse Survey: November 10, 2025 Industry Overview - Industry: U.S. Consumer Market - Survey: Conducted by Morgan Stanley, Wave 70, involving ~2,000 consumers from October 30th to November 3rd, 2025 [2][25] Key Findings Consumer Confidence - Economic Outlook: - 33% of consumers expect the economy to improve in the next six months, down from 36% last month and 44% in January [6][8] - 49% expect the economy to worsen, up from 46% last month [6][8] - NET score for economic outlook is -16%, a decline from -10% last wave and +8% in January [6][8] - Household Finances: - 38% expect finances to improve, down from 40% last month [12][58] - 31% expect finances to worsen, up from 28% last month [12][58] - NET score for household finances is +6%, down from +12% last month and +23% in January [12][58] Spending Intentions - Short-term Spending Outlook: - 31% of consumers plan to spend more next month, while 18% plan to spend less, resulting in a NET of +13%, down from +17% last month and +21% last year [6][13] - Lower-income consumers are more affected by the pause of SNAP benefits, contributing to the decline in spending intentions [6][13] - Long-term Spending Outlook: - Decline observed across categories, similar to levels seen in April [14][82] - Prioritization of essentials like groceries and household supplies continues [82] Inflation and Political Concerns - Inflation: - Remains the top concern for 57% of consumers, slightly down from 61% last year [7][30] - Political Environment: - 45% of consumers cite the political environment as a concern, up from 42% last month [7][30] - Concerns about the ability to repay debts (21%) and pay for rent/mortgage (23%) remain consistent with previous surveys [7][30] Holiday Spending Outlook - Holiday Budgets: - 38% plan to keep holiday budgets the same, 30% expect to spend more, and 23% expect to spend less, yielding a NET of +6%, down from +14% last year [86][90] - Higher prices are the main driver for spending changes, with 52% of consumers attributing reduced spending to inflation [91][92] Consumer Behavior Trends - Spending Categories: - Negative net spending intentions are observed in apparel (-18%), toys (-19%), and leisure/entertainment categories [15][83] - Food away from home remains a top category for spending cuts [51][83] - Use of AI in Shopping: - 45% of holiday shoppers are utilizing AI tools, with younger consumers showing higher engagement [108] Additional Insights - Demographic Variations: - Concerns about inflation and political issues vary by income level, with low-income consumers more worried about debts and high-income consumers focusing on investments [35][37] - Tariff Concerns: - 35% of consumers are very concerned about tariffs, with spending cautiousness increasing [40][45] This survey indicates a notable decline in consumer confidence and spending intentions, influenced by economic and political factors, with a cautious outlook for the upcoming holiday season.