亚太聚焦：深海领域 -不确定性还是机遇？一项万亿美元级别的议题-Global Industrials-APAC Focus Deep Sea - Uncertainty or Opportunity A Trillion Dollar Question

Summary of Deep Sea Mining and Offshore Oil & Gas Industry Insights Industry Overview - The report focuses on the deep sea mining and offshore oil & gas industry, highlighting the potential for significant mineral resource extraction from marine areas deeper than 200 meters, which constitute approximately 90% of the ocean's total area [12][13]. Key Findings 1. Mineral Resource Valuation: - Estimated mineral resources in the deep sea are valued at approximately US$177 trillion, with an upside scenario reaching US$287 trillion [12][16]. - The total value of deep sea mineral reserves includes US$81 trillion in metals and US$95 trillion in oil & gas [49][51]. 2. Capital Expenditure Forecast: - Offshore oil & gas exploration and production (E&P) capital expenditure (capex) is projected to be around US$2.5 trillion over the next decade [12][29]. - Deep sea metal mining equipment capex is expected to surge from US$150 billion in the next decade to US$1.5 trillion from 2036 to 2050 [12][68]. 3. Market Opportunities: - The deep sea mining market is anticipated to grow significantly, with a total addressable market (TAM) reaching US$1.7 trillion from 2026 to 2050 [3][68]. - Key beneficiaries identified include companies like MODEC, CIMC, Saipem, SLB, Wärtsilä, Jereh, COSL, and Vale Indonesia [2]. Challenges and Concerns 1. Environmental and Regulatory Issues: - Major concerns include environmental protection, biodiversity loss, and the slow regulatory progress from the International Seabed Authority (ISA) [4][15]. - The deep sea mining industry faces significant ecological risks, including potential irreversible damage to marine ecosystems and biodiversity [15][81]. 2. Technological and Cost Barriers: - Current deep sea mining costs are approximately 25% higher than terrestrial mining, but advancements in technology could lead to cost parity by 2033 [64][65]. - The report emphasizes the need for technological advancements to reduce operational and environmental costs [64]. Market Dynamics 1. Supply Constraints: - The demand for critical metals such as copper, cobalt, and nickel is increasing due to the transition to green energy and high-tech industries, while terrestrial supplies are depleting [18][20]. - Geopolitical tensions are exacerbating supply pressures, particularly as production is concentrated in a few countries [18][20]. 2. Geopolitical Influence: - The report notes significant developments in 2025, including the US and China prioritizing deep sea technology and mining, which may accelerate the commercialization of deep sea mining [14][42]. Sector Implications - The report identifies various sectors that could benefit from the deep sea economy, including: - Oil & Gas: Increased exploration and production activities, particularly in deepwater regions [85]. - Capital Goods: Demand for underwater robotics and equipment is expected to rise [85]. - Shipping and Transportation: Increased demand for dry bulk shipping as deep sea minerals are collected and transported for refining [85]. Conclusion - The deep sea mining and offshore oil & gas sectors present substantial investment opportunities, driven by technological advancements and increasing demand for critical minerals. However, environmental concerns and regulatory challenges remain significant hurdles that need to be addressed for sustainable development in this industry [84][85].