台湾 PCB 与覆铜板_ABF_BT 板块_从日东纺和味之素的业绩中得到正面传导导-Taiwan PCB & Laminates_ ABF_BT sector_ +ve read-across from Nittobo’s and Ajinomoto’s results

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - Industry: Taiwan PCB & Laminates, specifically focusing on the ABF/BT sector - Key Companies Mentioned: Nittobo, Ajinomoto, NYPCB, Unimicron, Kinsus, MGC, Nan Ya Plastics Core Insights and Arguments 1. Positive Outlook for ABF/BT Sector: - Nittobo and Ajinomoto's results indicate strong demand for T-glass and ABF, respectively, suggesting a favorable environment for the ABF/BT sector through 2026E [1][2][10] - Nittobo raised its guidance due to robust T-glass demand and ongoing supply shortages [1] 2. Price Hikes and Capacity Expansion: - Nittobo is negotiating price hikes of 20%-30% due to strong AI demand, with T-glass capacity expected to increase by 10%-20% in 2026 and double by 2027 [2] - New T-glass vendors, including Taiwan Glass Industry and Nanya Plastics, are expected to start production in 1Q26E [2] 3. Robust Demand for ABF: - Ajinomoto reported a 21% YoY increase in revenue from electronic materials, driven by AI server demand, with expectations for continued growth in the second half of FY25 [9] 4. Investment Recommendations: - Citi recommends buying shares of NYPCB and Unimicron in Taiwan, and MGC and Ajinomoto in Japan, based on their strong market positions and expected recovery in demand [1][10] Additional Important Insights 1. T-glass Shortage: - The T-glass shortage is anticipated to become more widespread, impacting the ABF/BT sector and downstream production [10] - The ongoing price increases in the sector are expected to benefit companies like NYPCB and Unimicron [10] 2. Earnings Estimates: - Kinsus, Nan Ya PCB, and Unimicron have varying earnings projections, with Kinsus expected to recover gradually from current challenges [19][20][28] - Unimicron is positioned to benefit from ABF tightness and potential demand recovery in the latter half of 2023 [28] 3. Risks: - Key risks for Kinsus include weaker smartphone demand and potential oversupply in the ABF market [21] - For NYPCB, risks include weaker-than-expected demand from key customers and severe T-glass shortages [26] - Unimicron faces risks from HDI business weakness and increased ABF supply [31] 4. Valuation Metrics: - Target prices for Kinsus, NYPCB, and Unimicron are set at NT$160, NT$360, and NT$220, respectively, based on DCF models reflecting their growth potential and market conditions [20][25][29] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the positive outlook for the ABF/BT sector, the implications of T-glass demand and supply dynamics, and the investment strategies recommended by Citi Research.