中国房地产_一线城市将取消购房限制-China Property_ Tier-1 cities to lift home purchase restrictions_

Summary of Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - Industry: China Property - Key Focus: Potential lifting of home purchase restrictions (HPRs) in tier-1 cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Sanya due to deteriorating market conditions [1][3][4] Core Insights and Arguments - Policy Speculation: Commentary from state media on accelerating the removal of unreasonable real estate policies has led to speculation about lifting HPRs [1][3] - Market Sentiment: Even if HPRs are removed, the positive impact on market sentiment is expected to be short-lived, categorized as a "Level 1" measure in the policy matrix [1][4] - Price Trends: Secondary home prices in tier-1 cities have fallen 38% from their peak, with a 9% decline year-to-date. Monthly average price drops are around 1.6% [3][4][10] - Gradual Easing: Any relaxation of HPRs is anticipated to be gradual rather than a one-off event, allowing policymakers to adjust as needed [4] - Need for Stronger Measures: A mere removal of HPRs is deemed insufficient to sustain market recovery; stronger measures are necessary to stabilize or recover home prices [4][15] Important but Overlooked Content - Historical Context: The narrative of removing unreasonable policies is not new, having been mentioned in the 15th Five-Year Plan [3] - Current Market Conditions: Despite calls for the housing market to stabilize, actual support measures have been minimal, indicating a need for more robust policy support [4] - Comparative Analysis: In cities like Guangzhou and Hangzhou, where HPRs have been eliminated, no significant recovery was observed post-initial volume increase [4] - Investment Recommendations: Top picks for investment include China Resources Land, China Resources Mixc, and Jinmao, with Longfor seen as offering the best risk-reward in a policy-induced rally [1][21] Conclusion - The China property market is facing significant challenges, with declining prices and sales volumes prompting speculation about policy changes. However, the effectiveness of potential measures remains uncertain, and stronger actions are needed to ensure a sustainable recovery.