中国变压器出口今年迄今增长 40%，且获得美国超大规模企业更多订单。中低压领域竞争加剧-China's transformer exports rising +40% YTD & increasing order wins with US hyperscalers. More competition rising in the MV and LV space

Summary of Conference Call on China's Transformer Exports Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call is on the transformer export industry in China, particularly regarding its performance in the capital goods sector and its implications for the US market [1][7]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Export Growth: China's transformer exports have increased by 40% year-to-date (YTD) as of September 2025, with significant contributions from high voltage (HV) and medium voltage (MV) equipment sold to Europe and mid to low-voltage equipment directed towards the under-supplied US market [2][3][4]. 2. US Market Dynamics: Exports to the US are particularly focused on data centers, where demand is high and concerns about national security are less pronounced compared to grid networks. This trend is expected to continue as local Chinese companies ramp up supply [3][4]. 3. Order Intake: Companies like JST have reported approximately $100 million in orders from US data centers this year, with expectations to double that in 2026. Other Asian companies, such as LS Electric, have also secured significant contracts with US hyperscalers [3][9]. 4. Lead Times: The lead time for medium voltage switchgear from mainstream suppliers is currently around 1 year, while Asian companies can offer much shorter lead times of 4-6 months. This difference is crucial for maintaining competitive advantages [3][4]. 5. Pricing Trends: Despite increased competition, pricing for switchgear is not expected to decline in the near term. US Producer Price Index (PPI) data indicates a 5% year-over-year increase in switchgear pricing in Q3 2025, up from 3% in Q2 [3][4][14]. 6. Volume vs. Value Growth: While the headline export growth of 40% appears strong, actual volume growth is only 5.4%. The value increase is attributed to favorable pricing conditions, tariff-related price hikes, and a shift in product mix towards higher average selling prices (ASP) [4][10]. Additional Important Insights - The competitive landscape is evolving, with more Asian low-voltage companies entering the US market and securing orders with major players like Amazon and other hyperscalers [9]. - The upcoming expert call on November 25th will discuss the migration of data centers to 800v DC design, which is expected to have significant implications for DC equipment suppliers [10]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the transformer export industry, highlighting growth trends, competitive dynamics, and pricing strategies.