美国消费者脉搏调查_消费者呈现疲软迹象-US Consumer Pulse Survey_ Consumer Showing Signs of Weakening

Summary of US Consumer Pulse Survey: Consumer Showing Signs of Weakening Industry Overview - Industry: U.S. Consumer Market - Survey Period: October 30th - November 3rd, 2025 - Sample Size: ~2,000 consumers Key Findings Consumer Confidence - Decline in Confidence: Consumer confidence in the economy and household finances has weakened, with only 33% expecting improvement in the economy over the next six months, down from 36% last month and 44% in January [6][8][56] - Negative Outlook: 49% of consumers expect the economy to worsen, leading to a NET score of -16%, a decline from -10% last wave and +8% in January [6][8][56] Spending Intentions - Short-term Spending Outlook: 31% of consumers plan to spend more next month, while 18% expect to spend less, resulting in a NET of +13%, down from +17% last month and +21% a year ago [6][13][74] - Long-term Spending Decline: Longer-term spending outlook has also decreased, with consumers prioritizing essentials like groceries and household supplies [14][82] Inflation and Political Concerns - Top Concerns: Inflation remains the primary concern for 57% of consumers, while political environment concerns have risen to 45%, likely due to the government shutdown [7][30][27] - Debt Repayment Worries: 21% of consumers are concerned about their ability to repay debts, and 23% worry about paying rent/mortgage, consistent with previous survey results [7][31] Category-Specific Spending Trends - Negative Spending Intentions: Categories such as apparel, toys, leisure/entertainment, and consumer electronics show the most negative net spending intentions, with apparel at NET -18% and toys at NET -19% [15][83] - Cautious Spending Behavior: 39% of consumers plan to cut back on spending due to economic conditions, with food away from home being the top category for cutbacks [45][51] Holiday Spending Outlook - Softer Holiday Season: 38% of consumers plan to maintain their holiday budgets, while 30% expect to spend more and 23% less, yielding a NET of +6%, down from +14% last year [86][90] - Price Sensitivity: Higher prices are cited as the main reason for reduced holiday spending, affecting both those planning to spend more and those cutting back [91][93] Use of Technology in Shopping - AI Tools Utilization: About 45% of holiday shoppers are using AI tools for shopping assistance, with younger consumers showing higher engagement [108] Additional Insights - Political Sentiment: Significant differences in sentiment are observed based on political affiliation, with liberals showing lower confidence compared to conservatives [65] - Income Disparities: Low-income consumers express greater concern over debt repayment and rent, while upper-income consumers are more focused on investment concerns [35][37] This survey indicates a cautious consumer sentiment in the U.S. market, with significant implications for spending behavior and economic outlook.