硫磺行业专家电话会

Summary of the Sulfur Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The sulfur market is currently experiencing tight supply conditions, with international prices remaining high due to factors such as maintenance at Central Asian refineries and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, leading to an expanded international supply gap. It is expected that prices will remain elevated in the short term, with a focus on the recovery of Russian supply impacting the market [1][2][11]. Key Points Supply and Demand Dynamics - In 2025, sulfur prices surged from approximately 1,500 RMB per ton at the beginning of the year to over 3,800 RMB, representing an increase of over 100% [2]. - Domestic apparent consumption is around 20 million tons annually, with half produced domestically and the other half imported. The main downstream demand comes from sulfuric acid production, phosphoric acid, and its derivatives, as well as titanium dioxide and caprolactam [2][12]. - The domestic sulfur production capacity is concentrated in Sinopec's Puguang gas field and Zhejiang Petrochemical, totaling approximately 16.8 million tons [1][4]. Inventory Levels - Current solid sulfur trade port inventory is about 2.23 million tons, with liquid inventory near 50,000 tons, leading to a total inventory of approximately 2.28 million tons [6]. Production Capacity and New Projects - The total production capacity for sulfuric acid from smelting flue gas is projected to be 60.09 million tons in 2025, with additional projects planned for the coming years [9][10]. - New domestic projects include a 400,000 tons/year sulfuric acid facility by Shandong Daon in March 2026 and several others with varying capacities scheduled for 2026 [10]. Impact of High Sulfur Prices - The high sulfur prices are exerting significant cost pressure on phosphate fertilizer producers, with many operating at a loss. The inability to pass on costs to end consumers due to the essential nature of fertilizers complicates the situation [12]. - Some companies may consider switching to direct procurement of smelting acid instead of producing acid from sulfur, depending on economic viability and environmental costs [14]. Regional Supply Sources - China primarily imports sulfur from the Middle East, Central Asia, and North America, with notable demand growth in Indonesia due to its metal smelting needs related to new energy and materials [3][16]. - Russian refineries are currently operating at about 60% capacity due to the ongoing conflict, with potential for supply recovery if geopolitical tensions ease [17]. Future Market Outlook - The sulfur market is expected to remain tight in 2026, with prices likely to stay high due to ongoing supply constraints and unpredictable geopolitical factors [11][12]. Other Considerations - The impact of the "anti-involution" policy on refinery operation rates is minimal, with the primary factor affecting operations being the decline in gasoline and diesel consumption due to the rise of electric vehicles [19]. - The cost of producing sulfur as a byproduct is not separately accounted for by refineries, but rough estimates suggest liquid sulfur costs around 30 RMB per ton and solid sulfur costs between 120-150 RMB per ton [18].