近期流感发病率上升，如何展望后续走势？

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the influenza industry, specifically focusing on the trends and projections for the flu season in 2025, with a particular emphasis on the H3N2 strain and its implications for public health and vaccine strategies. Core Insights and Arguments - Early Flu Season: The flu outbreak in 2025 is anticipated to occur earlier than usual, primarily due to the H3N2 strain, which has a higher mutation rate and lower herd immunity compared to the previous year's H1N1 strain. The peak is expected between mid-November and the end of December, with a smaller scale than in 2023 [1][2][4]. - Detection and Treatment: Current detection methods include nucleic acid testing and rapid tests that can differentiate between subtypes. The main antiviral medications are Oseltamivir and Marbofloxacin, with sufficient hospital reserves. However, there are concerns about Oseltamivir resistance, while no resistance to Marbofloxacin has been reported domestically [5][6][7]. - Impact of Vaccination: The flu vaccination rate in China is gradually increasing, particularly among school-aged children. Price sensitivity is a significant factor affecting vaccination willingness, with 100 yuan being a critical price point for younger populations [11][16]. - Vaccine Technology: There are two main types of flu vaccines: split vaccines and subunit vaccines. The latter has a higher purity and fewer side effects, although both types show similar effectiveness against H3N2 [10]. The potential for mRNA technology in flu vaccines is highlighted, offering rapid response capabilities and the possibility of developing combination vaccines [18]. - Future Risks: The flu season in 2026 may face dual risks from H1N1 and B-type influenza, depending on the prevalence of B-type flu in 2025. The immune barrier from previous infections or vaccinations typically lasts about six months but does not completely disappear [9][21]. Additional Important Content - Flu Trends: The fluctuation in flu incidence is influenced by various factors, including virus mutation, climate, vaccination rates, and herd immunity. The recent cold weather and declining immunity levels have contributed to the current surge in cases [8]. - Global Context: Internationally, early flu cases have increased compared to previous years, but there is no evidence suggesting that the overall scale will exceed that of 2023 [14]. - Public Health Recommendations: It is recommended to expand free vaccination coverage to high-risk groups, such as public service workers and staff in nursing homes, to enhance overall protection [17]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call regarding the influenza landscape for 2025, highlighting the importance of vaccination, treatment options, and the anticipated trends in flu incidence.