十五五开局之年，关注订单增长与军贸提速 - 2026年度国防军工行业策略报告

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The defense and military industry in China has shown significant growth, with revenue reaching 451.1 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.8% [1][2][3] - The military electronics sector experienced a remarkable growth rate of 81%, while naval equipment grew by 70%, indicating a strong demand for shipbuilding and risk diversification in the manufacturing sector [1][2][5] Core Insights and Arguments - The defense budget for 2025 is expected to increase by over 7%, accounting for approximately 7% of GDP, primarily allocated for military readiness, barrack construction, and weaponry, with weapons accounting for about 45% to 55% of the budget [1][3][5] - China's military exports have diversified from light weapons to advanced vessels and fighter jets, with plans to transfer drone production lines to friendly nations, enhancing local production capabilities [1][6][4] - The Chinese military aims to achieve several strategic goals: becoming a strong military by 2027, a global military power by 2035, and a world-class power by 2050, necessitating significant upgrades in weaponry and equipment [1][7][8] Performance of Sub-sectors - Different sub-sectors within the defense industry have varied performances: aerospace grew by 7%, aviation declined by 2%, ground equipment increased by 21%, naval equipment surged by 70%, and military electronics soared by 81% [2][5] - The naval equipment sector's revenue and profit growth reflects the development of the shipbuilding industry, with Chinese manufacturers seeking alternative suppliers due to U.S. restrictions on new contracts [5] Military Trade Developments - China's military exports have expanded significantly, with a focus on advanced military hardware and a shift towards exporting complete production lines rather than just individual products [6][4] - New fighter jets like the J-20E, J-20S, and the upcoming J-35 are expected to enhance China's competitiveness in the international military market [6] Future Military Modernization Goals - The Chinese Air Force aims to achieve a world-class operational capability by 2035, with a projected fleet of over 100 advanced fighter jets, including J-20, J-35, J-16, and J-15, along with the development of unmanned systems [1][10][8] - The modernization strategy includes converting retired J-6 aircraft into drones to establish a comprehensive unmanned combat system [10] Technological Advancements - Significant advancements in electromagnetic catapult technology have been achieved, with over 6,000 successful tests of new systems, showcasing China's leading position in this area [3][36] - The development of nuclear-powered aircraft carriers is progressing, with a mature nuclear power system that enhances safety and reduces maintenance costs [40] Impact of Military Trade on Financial Performance - Military trade significantly impacts the financial performance of defense companies, with net profit margins potentially increasing from 5% to 15%-20% upon securing contracts [54] Overall Industry Outlook - The defense sector is expected to continue its growth trajectory in 2026, driven by genuine and sustained demand, despite some companies potentially underperforming [55]