反内卷：储能需求旺盛，含氟锂电材料景气如何传导？

Summary of Conference Call on Lithium Battery Materials and Energy Storage Market Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the lithium battery materials industry, focusing on the energy storage market and the demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6) [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments Demand Growth - The demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage is experiencing significant growth, particularly in the energy storage sector, which is seeing explosive growth [1][4]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's new energy vehicle sales increased by 34%, accounting for over 40% of total vehicle sales [2]. - Global energy storage battery shipments reached over 430 GWh in 2025, with a year-on-year growth exceeding 90% [2]. Price Trends - The price of LiPF6 has rapidly increased from a low point, currently reaching around 130,000 RMB per ton, with expectations to rise to 200,000 RMB per ton by Q1 2026 [1][5]. - The price increase is driven by strong downstream demand and insufficient upstream supply, exacerbated by the shutdown of small and medium enterprises and saturation of capacity in leading companies [5][6]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The reasonable price difference between long-term contracts and spot orders is between 5,000 to 10,000 RMB, with spot prices exceeding 150,000 RMB [3][12]. - Small and medium-sized manufacturers of LiPF6 have a total capacity of about 100,000 tons, with a recovery period of 2-3 months for resuming production, contingent on storage conditions and quality requirements [11][12]. Impact on Downstream Industries - The price increase of LiPF6 is expected to transmit to downstream companies, such as electrolyte manufacturers, who have shown a certain degree of acceptance towards the price hikes [6][19]. - Other lithium battery materials, such as PVDF, are also experiencing price increases, although the duration of this trend may be shorter compared to LiPF6 [7][18]. Market Stability and Future Outlook - Fluorspar and hydrofluoric acid prices remain stable due to their limited connection with the new energy sector and are influenced by national macroeconomic controls [9][10]. - The market for LiFSI (lithium bis(fluorosulfonyl)imide) is currently stable but may see explosive price increases in the future, driven by upstream raw material prices and breakthroughs in battery technology [14][15]. Industry Challenges - The production of FEC (fluoroethylene carbonate) is in a tight supply-demand balance, with a ratio of approximately 103%, and is expected to remain so until Q3 2026 due to high production difficulties and environmental pressures [17]. Additional Important Insights - The overall acceptance of price increases by downstream manufacturers indicates that the industry can adapt to cost pressures despite the challenges [19]. - The impact of the price increase of LiPF6 on other fluorinated lithium battery materials is expected to last until the end of 2026, with varying degrees of influence on different products [18].