中国股票策略 - A 股市场情绪保持平稳-China Equity Strategy-A-Share Sentiment Remained Flat

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: A-Shares Market in China - Date: November 13, 2025 Core Insights 1. Market Sentiment: A-share investor sentiment remained flat, with the weighted MSASI increasing by 1% to 60% and the weighted MSASI 1MMA decreasing by 3% to 68% compared to the previous cycle [2][2] 2. Turnover Trends: Average daily turnover for ChiNext, A-shares, and Equity Futures decreased by 7% (to RMB 508 billion), 4% (to RMB 2,035 billion), and 16% (to RMB 371 billion), respectively [2][2] 3. CPI and PPI Analysis: Recent CPI and PPI highs have led to reflation optimism, but these are largely attributed to one-off factors. October core CPI YoY rose to 1.2%, the highest in nearly four years, while PPI YoY deflation narrowed for the third consecutive month [4][4] 4. Earnings Growth Outlook: Current momentum is expected to hold rather than break into new highs, with moderate earnings growth and limited valuation upside anticipated [1][13] 5. Deflationary Pressures: Domestic deflation is expected to persist, with fiscal stimulus likely to remain modest due to high public debt. The China economics team predicts deflation may continue at least through 2026 [14][14] Important Metrics 1. Net Inflows: Southbound trading recorded net inflows of USD 3.1 billion from November 6 to November 12, with year-to-date and month-to-date net inflows reaching USD 161 billion and USD 6.4 billion, respectively [3][3] 2. Credit Data: Credit data indicates a restored household risk appetite towards equities, although the negative wealth effect from housing still outweighs equity gains. October credit fell 20 basis points YoY to 8.7% [12][12] 3. Earnings Stability: 3Q25 MSCI China results showed slight quarter-on-quarter deterioration in earnings surprises, adding uncertainty to the stabilization trend [13][13] Additional Insights 1. Investor Sentiment Metrics: The new MSASI is based on 12 individual indicators capturing different dimensions of investor sentiment and market activity, normalized using a 100-day moving min-max method [15][15] 2. Normalization Process: The normalization process ensures that each indicator contributes proportionally, highlighting directional shifts in sentiment over time [23][23] 3. Weighting of Indicators: Each of the 12 series is assigned a weight based on its historical explanatory power relative to the CSI 300 Index, ensuring the overall index reflects sentiment components most relevant to A-share performance [24][24] Conclusion - The A-share market sentiment remains flat with moderate earnings growth expected. Key factors such as domestic deflation, credit trends, and investor sentiment metrics will be crucial in shaping the market outlook moving forward.