迎接煤炭新周期 - 煤价暂歇，上行将至

Summary of Conference Call on Coal Industry Industry Overview - The coal industry is experiencing a new cycle with a temporary pause in coal prices, but an upward trend is anticipated in the near future [1][4] Key Points and Arguments Coal Price Dynamics - Regional differentiation in thermal coal prices: Shanxi's Datong coal prices remain strong, while Yulin's prices have decreased but are supported by high quality and non-electric demand, leading to significant price volatility [1][3] - As of the week, Qinhuangdao's 5,500 kcal thermal coal price increased to 834 RMB/ton, up 17 RMB from the previous week, indicating a stable upward trend overall [2] Downstream Inventory Trends - National power plant inventory decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with daily consumption down by 5.9%, but the available days increased by 1.2 days [5] - The inventory at ports in the Bohai Rim region is 24.3 million tons, showing a 2.56% increase month-on-month but a 13.15% decrease year-on-year, indicating strong procurement demand despite lower inventory levels compared to last year [5] Global Energy Market Impact - International coal futures prices remained stable, while crude oil prices saw a slight increase of 1.2% and 0.4%. The global energy market has a limited impact on the domestic coal market, but a stable commodity price environment helps maintain domestic market stability [6] Hydropower Substitution Effect - The growth rate of hydropower generation has declined in Q4, reducing its substitution effect on thermal power, which is beneficial for thermal power demand and supports thermal coal demand [7] Coal Supply Constraints - In October, the national raw coal production was 410 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, with the decline rate expanding compared to September. This suggests that supply may continue to decrease in November and December due to strict safety checks and environmental policies [8] Future Price Outlook - Coal prices are expected to rise in the next 1-2 weeks due to increased heating demand from cold weather, higher daily consumption at power plants, and tight supply conditions [9] Investment Recommendations - For thermal coal, focus on companies with high earnings elasticity such as Yanzhou Coal Mining, Shanxi Coal International, and others [10] - For coking coal, recommend companies like Lu'an Environmental Energy and Pingmei Shenma, which are currently undervalued [10][11] - Electric Power Investment Energy's recent acquisition of coal and power assets for 11.15 billion RMB is expected to enhance integrated operational capabilities, despite a projected 10% dilution effect on earnings per share [12]