高低切&反内卷

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the "anti-involution" policy aimed at optimizing supply-demand structures and promoting inflation recovery, which has been strengthened since September 2025 [2][3][5] - The current market shows a clear high-low switching phenomenon, with cyclical industries such as coal, petrochemicals, and non-ferrous metals performing well [2][7] Key Points and Arguments Anti-Involution Policy - The anti-involution policy aims to clear supply first and stimulate demand later, optimizing the supply-demand structure to promote inflation recovery [3][6] - The policy has been increasingly enforced since September 2025, with a focus on regulating production behaviors and eliminating irrational competition [2][3][5] - Specific measures include supply-side constraints and governance of low-price competition in various sectors, including electronics and steel [5][6] Market Impact - The anti-involution policy is expected to have both short-term and long-term impacts on the equity market, with a positive catalyst effect on prices and performance over the next year [6] - The policy is anticipated to lead to a deeper adjustment of the capacity cycle over the next 3-5 years, similar to the supply-side structural reforms initiated in 2016 [6][8] Sector Performance - The cyclical industries benefiting from the anti-involution and inflation trading include non-ferrous metals, steel, coal, petrochemicals, and sectors like agriculture and logistics [2][11] - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing price increases due to capacity exits, while the wind power sector has seen an 18% increase in turbine prices [2][12] - In the lithium battery sector, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has doubled, and global energy storage demand is growing at over 50% [2][12] Steel Industry Insights - The steel industry is facing challenges with rising raw material prices but is expected to see a gradual recovery in steel prices and profits due to policy support [13][15][16] - Major companies like Baosteel and Hesteel are expected to benefit from the anti-involution policy, which supports advanced enterprises [3][14][16] Polyester and PTA Industry - The polyester and PTA industry is characterized by high concentration, with supply growth lagging behind demand growth, leading to a healthy supply-demand relationship [17][18] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is taking measures to potentially reduce production or curb new capacity, benefiting integrated companies [18] Organic Silicon Industry - The organic silicon industry has not seen new capacity since 2025, with demand growing rapidly at 24% in the first half of the year [19][20] - A recent meeting led by state-owned enterprises aims to reduce capacity by 30%, which could improve profitability and market concentration [20] Livestock Industry - The livestock industry has faced challenges, with pig prices dropping to a four-year low, leading to a shift towards capacity reduction [21][22] - Major companies are actively reducing production in response to policy adjustments [21] Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery sector has implemented anti-involution measures, resulting in price increases across the industry [23][24] - Companies like YTO Express and Shentong Express have reported increased revenue per shipment, indicating successful price adjustments [24][25][26] Recommendations - The conference recommends focusing on cyclical industries that benefit from tight supply and inflation trading logic, particularly in sectors like electric cells, metals, chemicals, agriculture, and transportation [10][11] - Specific express delivery companies such as YTO Express, Shentong Express, Jitu Express, and ZTO Express are highlighted as having strong performance potential under the anti-involution policy [27]