电子掘金：存储周期走到哪儿了？

Summary of Conference Call on Storage Market Dynamics Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the storage market, particularly the dynamics of DRAM and Norflash segments driven by AI and cloud computing demands [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - Norflash Demand Surge: The demand for large-capacity Norflash is significantly driven by a surge in AI GPU orders from companies like NVIDIA and AMD, particularly in the second and third quarters of 2025. This demand is further supported by continuous growth in automotive and industrial applications [1][2]. - DRAM Price Increases: DRAM prices have risen primarily due to production cuts by major overseas manufacturers and the encroachment of HBM capacity. Taiwanese and mainland Chinese manufacturers are currently unable to fill the production gap, leading to a more pronounced price increase in DRAM compared to Norflash [1][2]. - Current Pricing Trends: Niche DRAM products, such as DDR4, have surpassed previous cycle highs, with 8Gb DDR4 currently priced over $5, exceeding the 2021 peak of $4.8. This indicates a stronger market for DRAM compared to previous cycles [1][4]. - Market Cycle Position: The storage market is currently in an upward cycle, with expectations of continued demand driven by AI through 2026. The supply-demand imbalance is expected to persist due to conservative CAPEX strategies from manufacturers [3][9]. - Supply Constraints: Major manufacturers are experiencing limited capacity expansion, which is contributing to rising prices. The overall inventory levels in the industry are normal, but the previous cycle saw inventory levels drop significantly due to pandemic-related disruptions [4][10]. - Transition to DDR5: The transition from DDR4 to DDR5 is slow due to supply shortages and ecosystem limitations. The demand for DDR4 remains strong, particularly in network equipment, where its penetration rate is still mainstream [5][6]. - Future Supply and Demand Outlook: The supply of DRAM is expected to see only slight growth in 2026, while Norflash production will also face delays. The ongoing tight supply situation is likely to continue, with potential shifts in bargaining power between downstream customers and upstream suppliers [8][11]. - Investment Opportunities: The storage market is projected to remain in a supply-demand imbalance through 2026, driven by AI-related demand. Investment opportunities are suggested in related sectors, particularly in equipment supply chains [3][12]. Additional Important Insights - Price Increases: DRAM and NAND prices have seen significant increases, with DRAM contract prices rising over 170% year-on-year by the end of Q3 2025. NAND prices are also expected to rise by 25-30% in Q4 2025 [10]. - Long-term Market Dynamics: The storage market is characterized by a long cycle of 4 to 6 quarters, primarily influenced by AI demand, which is expected to sustain the upward trend in prices and market activity [3][9]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the storage market's current state and future outlook, highlighting the significant impact of AI and supply constraints on pricing and demand dynamics.