ABS分析框架：韧性与低波的协同

Summary of ABS Market Analysis Industry Overview - The Chinese ABS market is divided into interbank and exchange markets, with credit ABS previously dominant, now followed by the rise of exchange ABS and ABN. [1][7] - Currently, enterprise products dominate the market, influenced by macroeconomic factors and real estate, leading to an overall decline in scale. However, consumer finance products are performing strongly, with an annual issuance of approximately 2 trillion RMB and a total stock of about 3.5 trillion RMB. [1][7] Key Insights and Arguments - Growth Areas: - General consumer finance ABS is expected to become a growth segment, benefiting from policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption. [1][10] - Accounts receivable/supply chain finance ABS are expanding into emerging fields such as new energy, data, and overseas supply chain notes. [1][10] - Leasing ABS activity is increasing with new entities emerging, while city investment assets are decreasing in supply. [1][10] - Non-performing ABS is growing rapidly, primarily driven by banks' off-balance-sheet needs, and is expected to continue increasing in the short to medium term. [1][10] - Market Dynamics: - The ABS market is transitioning from a phase of rapid growth to one of high-quality development, with limited growth in CNBS but active participation from city investment entities. [2][7] - The liquidity of ABS has improved, attributed to the stability of products and the expansion of trading investors, although monthly turnover rates remain lower than traditional bonds. [12][13] - Investment Opportunities: - Current investment opportunities in the ABS market include basis spreads in general consumer finance, term spreads in leasing and fee income rights, seasonal premiums, new issuance premiums, and discounts from bundled sales rules. [19][21] Important but Overlooked Content - Risk and Return Characteristics: - Different types of ABS products have unique risk-return profiles, and investors should assess them based on specific circumstances. [21][22] - Retail ABS performance shows a divergence, with lower default rates in mortgage and auto loans compared to higher rates in consumer loans and microloans, yet small diversified assets remain stable. [15][22] - Challenges: - The ABS market faces challenges such as valuation pricing difficulties and trading complexities. Investors need to conduct in-depth research on cash flow models and underlying asset performance. [21][22] - Investor Preferences: - The main investors in ABS include banks, public funds, bank wealth management, and insurance companies, each with different preferences based on their investment strategies and risk appetites. [24][22] This summary encapsulates the key points from the ABS market analysis, highlighting the current state, growth opportunities, and challenges within the industry.