全球经济展望月报_经济体对美国关税和地缘政治展现出显著的灵活性与韧性，人工智能引领的投资无疑起到了推动作用，但前路仍有诸多隐患

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the global economic outlook, focusing on various regions including the United States, Canada, Euro area, and Asia-Pacific countries, particularly China and Japan. Core Insights and Arguments 1. U.S. Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain current interest rates in December, with a potential shift in leadership in 2026 leading to three rate cuts in that year [2][13][23] - The labor market shows signs of deterioration, with less inflation pressure than previously feared [13] - The U.S. economy is projected to grow at 2.0% in 2025, with inflation expected to stabilize around 2.8% [9] 2. Canada's Economic Situation - The Bank of Canada (BoC) has likely completed its easing cycle, with a terminal rate of 2.25% [23][24] - Economic growth remains weak due to trade disruptions, but labor markets are gradually recovering [24][26] - Inflation pressures are expected to decrease due to lower energy prices and a reduction in immigration targets [25][26] 3. Euro Area Insights - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to have finished its cutting cycle, with GDP growth anticipated to accelerate [13] - Inflation is projected to return to target levels by 2026, despite current pressures [13] - Germany's relaxed fiscal rules are expected to support stronger growth in the Euro area [3] 4. Asia-Pacific Economic Dynamics - China's export growth turned negative in October, with a weak outlook for exports beyond technology [4] - The Chinese government is likely to implement fiscal stimulus and rate cuts to support domestic demand [4][13] - Japan's Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to maintain its policy rate, with a potential hike in January 2026 [13][18] 5. Emerging Markets and Other Regions - Emerging markets are projected to grow at 4.3% in 2025, with inflation pressures varying across countries [9] - India faces growth challenges due to high tariffs, while Indonesia's new government policies raise fiscal risks [13][24] Additional Important Insights - The global economic outlook remains cautious, with potential risks from trade tensions and geopolitical issues [1][13] - The labor market dynamics in various regions indicate a shift towards weaker growth, which could impact monetary policy decisions [13][24] - The divergence in economic performance between technology and non-technology sectors is expected to continue, favoring countries like Taiwan and Korea over others like Thailand and Indonesia [13] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the economic outlook across different regions and sectors.