越南股票策略_2025 年第三季度业绩总结_多数不及预期；消费板块表现亮眼

Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Vietnamese equity market, particularly the VN30 index and various sectors within it, including Consumer Discretionary, Real Estate, Information Technology, and Materials [2][8][9]. Key Findings Earnings Results - Most sectors in the Vietnamese market missed earnings expectations this quarter, with six sectors delivering misses and three sectors posting beats. Notably, Consumer Discretionary and Real Estate were among the sectors that beat expectations, with Real Estate achieving this for the third consecutive quarter [2][9]. Sales and Earnings Revisions - Overall revisions for sales and earnings lean slightly positive. There is a minor negative adjustment to aggregate earnings for 2026E and 2027E, but the magnitude is negligible. The ratio of positive to negative revisions does not indicate a broadly negative outlook [3][11]. - Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples showed meaningful upward revisions across all three forward years, while Information Technology and Materials faced downward revisions [3][15][18]. Sector Performance - Consumer Discretionary and Real Estate sectors performed well, with Consumer Discretionary achieving a 100% beat rate among its constituents [10]. - Information Technology and Materials sectors faced challenges, with Information Technology experiencing misses across all three forward years [15][18]. Valuations - As of November 11, 2025, the VN30 index was trading at 2.1x 12-month forward price-to-book (PB), which is 6.6% above its 10-year average of 2.0x. Year-to-date performance in USD terms is on par with MSCI Emerging Markets but outperformed MSCI ASEAN by 21% [4]. Preferred Stocks - The report identifies preferred stocks in Vietnam, including: - Mobile World Investment (MWG): Price target of 96,000 VND for 2025, with a market cap of 4.334 billion USD and a P/E ratio of 18.2x for 2025. - Asia Commercial Joint Stock Bank (ACB): Price target of 40,000 VND, market cap of 4.851 billion USD, and a P/E ratio of 7.3x for 2025. - Hoa Phat Group (HPG): Price target of 34,000 VND, market cap of 7.759 billion USD, and a P/E ratio of 13.3x for 2025. - Nam Long Investment Corporation (NLG): Price target of 42,000 VND, market cap of 670 million USD, and a P/E ratio of 14.9x for 2025 [5]. Consensus Rating Changes - The consensus rating distribution has skewed towards downgrades post-results, particularly in the Real Estate sector, which did not experience upgrades despite delivering strong results [22]. Risks and Challenges - The report highlights various risks for the preferred stocks, including: - Mobile World: Risks related to strategic planning, operational errors, and competition. - ACB: Risks from competition, regulatory challenges, and potential asset quality issues. - Hoa Phat Group: Risks from regulatory challenges, trade protectionism, and reliance on imported raw materials. - Nam Long: Risks related to land access, project pre-sales uncertainties, and execution of strategy [27][28][29][30]. Conclusion - The Vietnamese equity market shows mixed results with certain sectors outperforming while others face challenges. The overall sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with specific stocks identified as potential investment opportunities amidst the evolving market landscape [3][4][22].