外资交易台：全球宏观感想与人工智能泡沫？

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Emerging Markets (EM) are expected to lead global equity returns over the next decade, with a projected Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 11%, compared to approximately 7% for the US and developed markets [2][3] - Global equities are forecasted to deliver a 7.7% USD CAGR over the next 10 years, despite high valuations, which is positioned at the 35th percentile of historical 10-year rolling returns since 1985 [2][3] Core Themes in Asia - Positive outlook for Asia equities in the coming months, with notable earnings revisions: +70 basis points in September and +340 basis points in October [7][8] - Key themes influencing market trajectory through Q1 2026 include US reindustrialization and China's investment in industrial technology [7][8] - The concept of "Little Giants" in China is highlighted as a significant alpha theme across Asia, indicating numerous investment opportunities [7][8] Investment Opportunities in India - Continued interest in the overweight (OW) position on Indian stocks, despite concerns about competition from North Asia and India's positioning as an 'anti-AI' play [10][11] - The lagged impact of policy easing is beginning to reflect in macroeconomic data, supporting the bullish stance on Indian equities [10][11] - A list of top 14 buy ideas in India is provided, with particular emphasis on MakeMyTrip and Eternal (Zomato) [10][11] AI Investment Landscape - Current AI investment trends are compared to the pre-Tech Bubble of 2000, suggesting that the current surge resembles the 1997-98 period rather than the overexuberance of 1999-2000 [13][14] - Monitoring for signs of macroeconomic and market imbalances related to the AI investment boom, including debt financing and erosion of corporate financial surpluses [13][14] US Economic Indicators - US GDP for Q4 2025 has been raised by 10 basis points to 2.0%, with alternative data indicating stronger consumer spending, capital expenditure growth, and a narrowing trade deficit [18][19] - However, large-scale layoffs announced by major companies are raising concerns about potential weakening in the labor market, with a new layoffs tracker indicating an increase above pre-pandemic levels [19][20] Conclusion - The conference call highlights a positive outlook for emerging markets, particularly in Asia and India, while also addressing potential risks in the AI sector and the US economy. The emphasis on earnings revisions and macroeconomic indicators suggests a cautious yet optimistic investment environment.